[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 200856
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022006
500 AM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

THE RADAR SIGNATURE OF BERYL ON THE DOVER DELAWARE WSR-88D HAS
IMPROVED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH A PROMINENT
AND PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE BAND ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CENTER.
THIS MAY HAVE CAUSED A REFORMATION OF THE CENTER...AS THE AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND BERYL WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY POSITION.  THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
1001 MB WITH MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 64 KT IN THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.  A DROPSONDE IN THIS AREA ALSO MEASURED 47 KT
SURFACE WINDS.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50
KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 005/8.  SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT BERYL IS ABOUT TO ENTER THE WESTERLIES...WITH CIRRUS
CLOUDS AND DRY PATCHES OF AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOCATED WEST
OF THE STORM NOW BLOWING TOWARD IT.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN
NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN THE
GENERAL DIRECTION OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND NOVA SCOTIA.
MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED AROUND A TRACK JUST SOUTH
OF NANTUCKET AND OVER NOVA SCOTIA...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS
NUDGED TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO THIS AS WELL AS THE CURRENT
POSITION AND MOTION.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL AND THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN REMAIN LEFT OUTLIERS...CALLING FOR THE CENTER OF
BERYL TO ACTUALLY MAKE LANDFALL IN NEW ENGLAND.

BERYL IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING SHEAR AND PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER WATER...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING.  THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT SHOULD CAUSE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN
36-48 HR...AND THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO LOSE ITS IDENTITY IN THE
FRONTAL ZONE BEYOND THAT TIME.  WHILE THE INTENSITY FORECAST NO
LONGER CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING...SOME SHORT-LIVED STRENGTHENING
COULD OCCUR TODAY.

IF BERYL MOVES TO THE LEFT OF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...
ADDITIONAL WATCHES OF WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR LONG ISLAND AND
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      20/0900Z 37.8N  73.2W    50 KT
 12HR VT     20/1800Z 39.0N  72.6W    50 KT
 24HR VT     21/0600Z 40.6N  70.7W    45 KT
 36HR VT     21/1800Z 42.7N  67.3W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     22/0600Z 45.5N  62.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     23/0600Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL ZONE

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

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