[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS81 KBOX 200510 CCA
HLSBOX
ANZ231>233-254-255-MAZ019-022>024-201101-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED WIND PROBABILITIES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
110 AM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS
TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
TROPICAL STORM BERYL MAY IMPACT CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD...
NANTUCKET AND SOUTHEAST PLYMOUTH COUNTY LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY.

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN...
SOUTHEAST COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS. THIS STATEMENT ALSO RECOMMENDS
ACTIONS FOR BOATERS IN THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS TO
PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND
NANTUCKET.

TROPICAL STORM BERYL IS PROJECTED TO PASS APPROXIMATELY 40 MILES
SOUTH OF NANTUCKET AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING.  ON THIS TRACK...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH COULD SPREAD ACROSS
THE WATCH AREA. THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO RECEIVE TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WOULD BE OVER NANTUCKET...CLOSEST TO BERYL.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 37.0 NORTH LONGITUDE 73.0 WEST...OR ABOUT 335 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET. MOVEMENT WAS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT
9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 60 MPH. LOWEST BAROMETRIC
PRESSURE WAS 1002 MB...OR 29.59 INCHES.

THE MOTION TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
AND THURSDAY.

..PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ONE OF THE BIGGEST THREATS A TROPICAL STORM CAN POSE TO NEW ENGLAND
IS TO THE BOATING COMMUNITY. MARINERS ARE ADVISED TO REMAIN IN PORT
UNTIL THE TROPICAL STORM THREAT HAS PASSED. BOAT OWNERS AND MARINA
OPERATORS SHOULD BEGIN PREPARING FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS.  THE
PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS INCLUDE PREPARING GEAR TO BE ABLE TO TIE DOWN
VESSELS.

FOR A MORE COMPLETE LISTING OF TROPICAL STORM WATCH PREPAREDNESS
INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON.

...WIND IMPACTS...
AT THE POINT OF CLOSEST APPROACH...WHICH WILL BE APPROXIMATELY 6 AM
FRIDAY MORNING...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO BE PACKING SUSTAINED WINDS OF
60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH...MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER.  TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS OF APPROXIMATELY 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH WOULD
BEGIN ON NANTUCKET AT APPROXIMATELY 3 AM FRIDAY.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
AN ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE OF 3.9 FEET OCCURS AT NANTUCKET AT 918 PM
THURSDAY NIGHT AND 2.7 FEET AT 1013 AM FRIDAY MORNING.  AT THIS
TIME...STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO 1 TO 2 FEET WHICH
WOULD CAUSE SOME MINOR SPLASHOVER TO OCCUR.

AN ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE OF 10.0 FEET OCCURS AT PROVINCETOWN AT
826 PM THURSDAY NIGHT AND 8.4 FEET AT 912 AM FRIDAY MORNING.
AT THIS TIME...STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO 1 TO 2 FEET
WHICH WOULD CAUSE SOME MINOR SPLASHOVER TO OCCUR.

THE SURGES THAT ACTUALLY OCCUR WILL DEPEND ON THE EVENTUAL SPEED OF
THE STORM.  THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE STORM...WHETHER IT ARRIVES AT
HIGH TIDE OR AT LOW TIDE...WILL ALSO AFFECT THESE VALUES.

...RIVER AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD IMPACTS...
TROPICAL STORM BERYL MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
IN PLYMOUTH AND BRISTOL COUNTIES OF MASSACHUSETTS AS WELL AS RHODE
ISLAND...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN. FLOOD
WATCHES MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED WITH LATER FORECASTS IF THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLOODING INCREASES.

ON CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE INITIATED IF
3 INCHES OF RAIN WERE TO OCCUR IN ONE HOUR...OR 4.5 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL IN 3 HOURS. ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS AND IN RHODE
ISLAND...2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN ONE HOUR...OR 3 TO 4 INCHES OF
RAIN IN 3 HOURS WOULD INITIATE FLOODING.

AT THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS OVER CAPE
COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD...AND NANTUCKET.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACTS...
SOUTHERLY SWELLS FROM TROPICAL STORM BERYL SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE
RHODE ISLAND AND MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS LATER THIS MORNING.
THESE SWELLS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND ROUGH SURF
ALONG SOUTH FACING BEACHES INTO FRIDAY.

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
HERE ARES SOME PROBABILITIES OF TROPICAL STORM FORCES WINDS
FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS FROM 11 PM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH 8 AM EDT
FRIDAY...

BOSTON MA     25 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER
BOSTON MA      4 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 58 MPH OR GREATER

HYANNIS MA    46 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER
HYANNIS MA    13 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 58 MPH OR GREATER

NANTUCKET MA  57 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER
NANTUCKET MA  18 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 58 MPH OR GREATER
NANTUCKET MA   4 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 74 MPH OR GREATER

PROVIDENCE RI 35 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 39 MPH OR GREATER
PROVIDENCE RI  7 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS 58 MPH OR GREATER


...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON BY 7 AM.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON PREPAREDNESS MEASURES FOR BOTH COASTAL AND
INLAND RESIDENTS WILL BE CONTAINED IN PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS
/KBOXPNSBOX/ THAT WILL BE ISSUED THROUGHOUT THE STORM THREAT.
ADDITIONAL STORM INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND IN SHORT TERM
FORECASTS /KBOXNOWBOX/...AND IN TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER PRODUCTS.
ALSO VISIT THE NWS TAUNTON HOMEPAGE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON.

$$

BELK



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