[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 200247
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022006
1100 PM EDT WED JUL 19 2006

DESPITE REPEATED BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION VERY CLOSE TO THE CENTER
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...REPORTS FROM THE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THROUGH 00Z INDICATED THAT BERYL HAD NOT
STRENGTHENED ANY FURTHER.  HOWEVER...SHIP AND AIRCRAFT DATA DO
INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADII HAVE EXPANDED A
BIT.  ANOTHER AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE SYSTEM AT 06Z.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 015/8.  A NUMBER OF MODELS FROM EARLIER
TODAY...INCLUDING THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND MOST PROMINENTLY THE
GFDL...WERE FORECASTING A NORTH OR EVEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
THAT DID NOT OCCUR AND THEREFORE AT 00Z WERE NEARLY A DEGREE TO THE
LEFT OF THE ACTUAL POSITION.  STILL...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED BY A
TEMPORARY LEFTWARD JOG OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY GIVEN THAT THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION IS STILL NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  HOWEVER...
BERYL IS ROUNDING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND WILL BE FEELING THE
MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES WITHIN 24 HOURS.  THEREFORE...ANY TURN BACK TO
THE NORTH SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.  MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS...ADJUSTED FOR INITIAL POSITION ERROR...KEEP THE CENTER OF
BERYL OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES IN RESPONSE TO THE
INCREASING WESTERLIES.  THE GFDL IS THE PRIMARY OUTLIER.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.

THERE IS TIME FOR A LITTLE STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR
SO...BUT BY THIS TIME TOMORROW BERYL WILL BE OVER MUCH COOLER
WATERS.  IN ADDITION...A SHARP 200 MB TROUGH WILL BE OVERTAKING THE
CYCLONE...INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR.  BY THE TIME BERYL MAKES ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE COASTLINE...I WOULD EXPECT IT TO BE
WEAKENING.  FURTHER...THE REVERSAL IN THE UPPER FLOW SHOULD
RESTRICT THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST RAINS TO THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE AS IT PASSES.  CONSEQUENTLY...NO TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR
WARNING IS BEING ISSUED FOR LONG ISLAND AT THIS TIME.  HOWEVER...
IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A SHORT-FUSED TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MIGHT BE REQUIRED IN THE MORNING.

REGARDING THE PRONUNCIATION OF BERYL...A REVIEW OF SEVERAL
DICTIONARIES SHOWS THAT BOTH BER'-IL AND BURL ARE ACCEPTED
PRONUNCIATIONS...AND IN FACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DIRECTIVE
SPECIFIES THE FORMER...TWO SYLLABLE...PRONUNCIATION. THE ONLY BERYL
I PERSONALLY KNOW ALSO PRONOUNCES IT BER'-IL. WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY
CONFUSION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      20/0300Z 37.0N  73.0W    50 KT
 12HR VT     20/1200Z 38.1N  72.7W    55 KT
 24HR VT     21/0000Z 39.6N  71.3W    50 KT
 36HR VT     21/1200Z 41.5N  68.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     22/0000Z 43.7N  64.4W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     23/0000Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL ZONE

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net