[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 191809
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUL 19 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM BERYL IS CENTERED NEAR 35.6N 73.7W AT 19/1500 UTC
OR ABOUT 90 NM E OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MOVING N AT 8
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AROUND THE
CENTER AS IT TRACKS OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN 72 HOURS WITH
SOME STRENGTHENING BEFORE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND
INCREASED SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS RELOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM TO ALONG 47W S OF 19N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N-25N BETWEEN 45W-53W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W S OF 20N MOVING W 15 KT. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER JAMAICA IS INTERACTING WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE AND
ENHANCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG A LINE FROM 15N80W
TO 17N77W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 6N22W 10N34W 8N45W 8N58W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST OF AFRICA IS WITHIN
45 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 25W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS IN THE N GULF NEAR 28N88W WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ENE TO THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ALONG THE
N GULF COAST TO A 1018 MB HIGH IN S LOUISIANA. AN AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED ESE OF THE UPPER LOW
WITHIN 90 NM OF 26N87W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN FROM 21N91W
TO AN UPPER LOW OVER JAMAICA AT 18N78W TO 17N71W. A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE S CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM COSTA RICA TO
THE N COAST OF VENEZUELA. ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS
NEAR THE COSTA RICAN COAST FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 81W-84W. AN AREA
OF STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE COAST OF PANAMA/COLUMBIA WITHIN
30 NM OF 9N77W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF HISPANIOLA
NEAR 16.5N71.5W. MODERATE TRADE WINDS EXIST ACROSS MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN S OF 18N.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
T.S. BERYL IS EMBEDDED IN DEEP SLY FLOW E OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. DIFFLUENT FLOW E OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 26N69W IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG A LINE 20N66W-24N66W-29N63W IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM
20N-23N BETWEEN 63W-68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FOUND OVER THE SW
ATLC FROM 22N-30N W OF 76W TO THE FLORIDA COAST AND THROUGH THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE 1029 MB
HIGH NEAR 36N50W AND COMMON TRADE WIND FLOW. A LARGE AREA OF
SAHARAN DUST IS LOCATED FROM 35W TO AFRICA BETWEEN 7N-23N.

$$
MUNDELL

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