[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 191442
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022006
1100 AM EDT WED JUL 19 2006

THE LAST RECON PASS THROUGH THE CENTER OF BERYL THIS MORNING
INDICATED THE PRESSURE HAD DROPPED ANOTHER MILLIBAR DOWN TO 1004
MB. FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 850 MB WERE 52 KT IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT
IN CONVECTION...AND THAT IS THE JUSTIFICATION FOR INCREASING THE
INTENSITY TO 40 KT. ALSO...THE CORRECT PRONUNCIATION OF TROPICAL
STORM BERYL IS BERLE... LIKE THE LAST NAME OF MILTON BERLE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/08 KT...WHICH IS A BLEND OF RECON
...SATELLITE...AND DOPPLER RADAR DATA. RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
SINCE THE LAST RECON FLIGHT AT 12Z SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION
CENTER MAY BE UNDERGOING SOME RE-ORGANIZATION CLOSER TO A BAND OF
STRONG CONVECTION THAT HAS FORMED IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. AS
A RESULT... THERE MAY BE SOME WOBBLING TO THE WEST UNTIL CONVECTION
WRAPS AROUND THE EAST SIDE... BUT THE OVERALL MOTION SHOULD BE
NORTHERLY AND PARALLEL TO THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC COAST IN THE SHORT
TERM. IN THE LONGER TERM... THE FORECAST TRACK HINGES HEAVILY ON
THE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF BERYL. THE GFDL...GFS...AND NOGAPS
MODELS MOVE A VERY WEAK BERYL ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...WHEREAS THE UKMET...CANADIAN...AND ECMWF KEEP THE
CIRCULATION CENTER MORE OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS KEEP
THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WELL OFFSHORE. SINCE BERYL IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN A VERTICALLY DEEP SYSTEM... THE LATTER SOLUTION OF KEEPING
THE CENTER OFFSHORE IS PREFERRED GIVEN THE LARGE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES THAT IS EXPECTED TO CAPTURE THE CYCLONE AND MOVE IT
NORTHEASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK AND IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE GUNA MODEL CONSENSUS.

BANDING FEATURES IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE HAVE IMPROVED... AS HAS
THE OUTFLOW PATTERN. BERYL IS ALSO MOVING OVER SOME OF THE WARMEST
WATER ALONG ITS PAST AND FUTURE TRACK. HOWEVER... THESE FAVORABLE
INTENSIFICATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WITHIN 12 HOURS...AND THE
CYCLONE WILL ALSO BE MOVING OVER SUB-26C SSTS SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE BERYL MOVES OVER
MUCH COOLER WATER BY 24H...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE SLOW WEAKENING AS
BERYL TRANSITIONS OVER TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      19/1500Z 35.6N  73.7W    40 KT
 12HR VT     20/0000Z 36.6N  73.7W    45 KT
 24HR VT     20/1200Z 37.9N  73.1W    50 KT
 36HR VT     21/0000Z 39.6N  71.5W    50 KT
 48HR VT     21/1200Z 41.3N  68.6W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     22/1200Z 44.9N  61.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     23/1200Z 47.0N  52.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     24/1200Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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