[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 191109
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUL 19 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM BERYL IS CENTERED NEAR XX.XN XX.XW AT 19/1200 UTC
OR ABOUT XXX NM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MOVING N AT 6
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER REMAINS EXPOSED WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE CENTER WITHIN
120/150 NM OF THE CENTER. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 27N-33N BETWEEN 71W-78W. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL IN 72 HOURS WITH SOME STRENGTHENING BEFORE MOVING
OVER COOLER WATERS AND INCREASE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W S OF 18N MOVING W 15 KT. BROAD
LOW/MID LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W/72W S OF 21N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE IS
W OF AN UPPER TROUGH WITH THE SIGNATURE CURVATURE OBSERVED ON
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N TO THE COAST OF
HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 67W-72W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER VENZUELA AND LAKE MARACAIBO.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 93W/94W S OF 22N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE
IS MOSTLY IN THE E PACIFIC REGION AND INLAND OVER S MEXICO WITH
THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION S OF THE AREA.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N11W 6N22W 10N38W 8N51W 10N65W
8N79W INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM
11W-16W. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS
FROM 16W-23W AND WITHIN 45 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 38W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS IN THE N GULF NEAR 28N88W WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ENE TO THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ALONG THE
N GULF COAST TO W LOUISIANA. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIMITED EVEN
WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO OVER THE E GULF
WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 28N E OF 84W
TO OVER THE THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SMALL UPPER LOW IS JUST S OF CUBA NEAR 19N79W WITH A LARGE
UPPER LOW N OF HISPANIOLA/PUERTO RICO EXTENDING S OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN TO THE ABC ISLANDS FROM 63W-72W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE
COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM COSTA RICA TO NEAR 15N74W.
A SECOND UPPER HIGH IS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA COVERING THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 75 NM OF 18N FROM 64W-69W INCLUDING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE S OF 12N W
OF 75W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
ITCZ AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS
THE N CARIBBEAN FROM 16N-20N W OF 72W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. MODERATE/STRONG TRADEWINDS EXIST ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E US EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC N OF 28N
W OF 74W OF WHICH T.S. BERYL IS EMBEDDED. ALSO OVER THE W ATLC
IS A SECOND LARGE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N69W COVERING THE
AREA FROM 60W-73W AND EXTENDS S OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE UPPER LOW EXTENDS ALONG THE
LINE 31N61W-20N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
20N-31N BETWEEN 58W-64W. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ALSO FOUND OVER THE
SW ATLC WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
22N-30N W OF 76W TO THE FLORIDA COAST AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. A LARGE UPPER HIGH DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC
ANCHORED NEAR 19N32W. MID LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE S/CENTRAL ATLC
ALONG 48W FROM 11N-24N. THE ATLC IS MAINLY DOMINATED BY A
SURFACE 1029 MB HIGH LOCATED N OF THE REGION COVERING THE ATLC N
OF 15N E OF 70W.

$$
WALLACE/FORMOSA




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