[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 190558
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUL 19 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM BERYL IS CENTERED NEAR 34.5N 73.8W OR ABOUT 100
NM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MOVING N AT 6 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS COMPLETELY EXPOSED
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 32N-35N BETWEEN
71W-73W AND FROM 35N-38N BETWEEN 71W-75W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 71W-76W. THE SYSTEM HAS
BECOME DETACHED FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 72 HOURS WITH SOME STRENGTHENING BEFORE
MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND INCREASE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W S OF 20N MOVING W 15 KT. BROAD
LOW/MID LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 29W-34W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W/71W S OF 21N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE
IS MOVING TO THE W OF AN UPPER TROUGH WITH THE SIGNATURE
CURVATURE OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 15N TO THE COAST OF
HISPANIOLA FROM 71W-74W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W/92W S OF 23N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE
IS MOSTLY IN THE E PACIFIC REGION AND INLAND OVER S MEXICO WITH
THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION S OF THE AREA.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 9N25W 10N36W 7N43W 10N63W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST
OF AFRICA WITHIN 45/60 NM OF LINE 4N12W-7N15W AND WITHIN 75 NM
ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 59W-63W. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 11W-22W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL US COVERING THE NW GULF N
OF 22N W OF 92W. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE NE GULF NEAR 28N88W
WHICH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E US
AND W ATLC INCLUDING THE NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 92W. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 28N86W. SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS LIMITED EVEN WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE TO OVER THE SE GULF WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 27N E OF 83W TO OVER THE THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SMALL UPPER LOW IS JUST S OF CUBA NEAR 19N79W WITH A LARGE
UPPER LOW N OF HISPANIOLA/PUERTO RICO EXTENDING S OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN TO THE ABC ISLANDS FROM 63W-72W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE
COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM COSTA RICA TO NEAR 16N74W
GIVING THE THAT AREA E TO S UPPER FLOW. A SECOND UPPER HIGH IS
INLAND OVER VENEZUELA COVERING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS AT THE BASE OF THE LARGE
UPPER LOW N OF 14N TO OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO
BETWEEN 65W-70W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA FROM FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 81W-84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N
BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND CENTRAL AMERICA AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS
S OF 20N W OF 82W. MODERATE/STRONG TRADEWINDS EXIST ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE NE GULF AND THE E US EXTENDS
INTO THE W ATLC N OF 26N W OF 75W OF WHICH T.S. BERYL IS
EMBEDDED. ALSO OVER THE W ATLC IS A SECOND LARGE UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 27N68W COVERING THE AREA FROM 60W-73W AND EXTENDS
S OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LARGE UPPER LOW EXTENDS ALONG THE LINE 30N57W-21N65W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF LINE FROM 30N60W TO
OVER THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS NEAR 18N66W. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
LIMITED EVEN WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO OVER
THE SW ATLC WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF
27N W OF 76W TO THE FLORIDA COAST AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. A LARGE UPPER HIGH DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC
ANCHORED NEAR 22N30W. MID LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE S/CENTRAL ATLC
ALONG 47W FROM 11N-23N WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
15N46W 20N46W TO 24N43W. THE ATLC IS MAINLY DOMINATED BY A
SURFACE 1030 MB HIGH LOCATED N OF THE REGION COVERING THE ATLC N
OF 15N E OF 70W.

$$
WALLACE


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