[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion
EMWIN Server
emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Tue Jul 18 21:35:59 CDT 2006
WTNT42 KNHC 190233
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006
1100 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006
LAST OBSERVATIONS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND DVORAK SATELLITE
ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT BERYL IS NOT CURRENTLY INTENSIFYING. THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME EXPOSED AND DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED
TO A CURVED BAND MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. IN FACT...IT
SEEMS THAT THE CYCLONE IS SOMEWHAT ATTACHED TO A FRONTAL ZONE.
INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER
COOLER WATER AND THE SHEAR INCREASES EVEN MORE. BERYL SHOULD BEGIN
TO ACQUIRE EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 72 HOURS OR LESS.
BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OF 350 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS AROUND
THE WEST SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEN
GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST IN
BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. SINCE
MOST OF THE RELIABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE TURN BERYL TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WAS SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...I AM
KEEPING THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH UNTIL A DEFINITIVE TREND AWAY FROM
COAST BEGINS. THIS TREND COULD BEGIN AS SOON AS EARLY WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/0300Z 34.1N 73.6W 35 KT
12HR VT 19/1200Z 35.0N 73.7W 40 KT
24HR VT 20/0000Z 36.0N 73.6W 45 KT
36HR VT 20/1200Z 37.5N 73.0W 50 KT
48HR VT 21/0000Z 39.5N 71.5W 50 KT
72HR VT 22/0000Z 42.0N 67.0W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 23/0000Z 43.0N 61.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 24/0000Z 44.5N 56.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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