[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 182351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM
BERYL AT 18/2100 UTC. AT 18/2100 UTC BERYL WAS CENTERED NEAR
33.3N 73.3W OR ABOUT 180 NM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.
THE STORM IS MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTH AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35
KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADJUSTED AHEAD ALONG 34W SOUTH OF 18N
MOVING W 15-20 KT. THIS ADJUSTMENT IS BASED UPON CURVATURE OF
THE CLOUDS IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS. MUCH OF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS WELL BEHIND
THE WAVE AXIS FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 26W-33W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 69W/70W MOVING W 15-20
KT. THE WAVE HAS FAIR SIGNATURE WITH THE AXIS ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF PATCHES OF MODERATE CONVECTION WHICH EXTENDS WITHIN 300
NM EAST OF THE AXIS. THE WAVE IS PASSING S OF AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 26N67W. THIS WAVE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ITCZ IS
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA W OF 55W. THE WAVE WILL SPREAD MOISTURE TO THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN TOMORROW AND THU.

A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS S MEXICO HAS BEEN ADJUSTED AHEAD ALONG
90W SOUTH OF 22N MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY AHEAD TO THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CONVECTION.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOST ORGANIZED OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 89W-91W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 10N27W 7N43W 10N61W. BESIDES FOR
THE TROPICAL WAVES....THE ITCZ IS RELATIVELY QUIET WITH ONLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE AXIS. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
AFRICA APPROACHING THE COASTLINE.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LIES IN THE WEST GULF
ALONG 28N97W 27N91W. SCATTERED WEAKENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS LIE
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SFC TROUGH. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS
IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 82W-88W.
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF WITH WINDS
GENERALLY 5-10 KT ACROSS THE AREA. THE MOST ORGANIZED ACTIVITY
IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MOVING INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION CURRENTLY IS FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 87W-92W. BESIDES
FOR THE UNSETTLED WEATHER MENTIONED...LITTLE SIGNIFICANT DEEP
MOISTURE IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ESTABLISHED IN THE CARIBBEAN. THE
UPPER TROUGH STRETCHES FROM AN UPPER LOW JUST SOUTH OF CUBA NEAR
20N80W TOWARDS COSTA RICA. A FAIR AMOUNT OF DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE
PREVAILS OVER THE BASIN S OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. A TROPICAL
WAVE THAT CUTS THRU THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH IN THE
ATLANTIC. THIS IS HELPING TO TRIGGER SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AND SOME OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS
OCCURRING FARTHER WEST...FROM 81W WESTWARD TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 90W. FOR MORE
INFORMATION REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION. AT THE SURFACE
TYPICAL TRADE WINDS OF 15-20 KT DOMINATE THE AREA WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA.
OUTSIDE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY RELATED TO THE TROPICAL
WAVES...THE ONLY AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED OVER PANAMA
AND COSTA RICA LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED
THROUGH FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS DRAPED FROM NEWLY UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM
BERYL TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. A TAIL OF CLOUDS EXTENDS
FROM BERYL WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SFC TROUGH. FARTHER
EAST... THE INTERACTION BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR
26N67W AND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY
ALONG 70W HAS ALLOWED THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF THE WAVE TO
SPLIT OFF AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH LIES ALONG 28N59W
20N65W. THE SURFACE TROUGH...ALONG WITH THE UPPER LOW... IS
PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NE OF PUERTO
RICO FROM 19-29N BETWEEN 58-63W. IN THE CENTRAL ATLC...A WEAK
SFC TROUGH IS ALONG 44W FROM 15N-24N. CURVED LOW-MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND A KINK THE ISOBARIC PATTERN IS ABOUT THE ONLY EFFECTS
OF THIS WEAK FEATURE. A 1030 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
37N48W CONTINUES TO PRODUCE MAINLY ELY SURFACE FLOW WITH FAIR
WEATHER FROM 15N-30N BETWEEN 20W-50W. DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT
COVERS A GOOD PORTION OF THE ATLC E OF 55W.

$$
CANGIALOSI


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