[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181759
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO CENTERED NEAR 32.5N 73.4W AT 18/1500 UTC
OR ABOUT 200 NM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MOVING N AT 4
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 31W S OF 17N
MOVING W 15-20 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 20W-26W. CONVECTION HAS
DIMINISHED PAST 24 HOURS AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS NOT LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN ACROSS PUERTO RICO ALONG 68W S
OF 20N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS PASSING S OF AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 26N66W. THE WAVE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 12-16N BETWEEN 66-69W. THE WAVE IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER NE VENEZUELA.
THE WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE W CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT AND THU.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 88W S OF 22N
MOVING W 15 KT. THE WAVE IS PRODUCING CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION MAINLY ALONG THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA HONDURAS
AND BELIZE. IT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE BASIN INTO S MEXICO AND THE
E PACIFIC WED.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG 13N17W 9N31W 6N45W 5N55W. OUTSIDE OF
TROPICAL WAVES...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN
30-60 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SE FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR TAMPA. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER
THE ENTIRE GULF WITH WINDS GENERALLY 5-10 KT. EXCEPT FOR AN AREA
OF MODERATE CONVECTION MOVING SW ALONG THE TEXAS COAST NEAR
GALVESTON THE GULF REMAINS RELATIVELY FREE OF TSTMS BECAUSE OF
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. ELY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES THE S
GULF. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS W TO E FROM THE TEXAS COAST
ACROSS FLORIDA. TSTM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND WED
MORNING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA
DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS 20N FROM AN UPPER
LOW W OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 16N96W TO AN UPPER LOW
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N88W TO AN UPPER LOW S OF CUBA
AT 20N80W. ABUNDANT DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE PREVAILS OVER THE BASIN
S OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE TYPICAL TRADE WINDS
OF 15-20 KT DOMINATE THE AREA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA. OUTSIDE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVES ALONG 68W AND 88W...THE ONLY AREA
OF DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED N OF PANAMA NEAR 10N79W. TRADE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED
THROUGH FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NW TOWARD THE OUTER
BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SLOWLY INTENSIFY. THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N57W AND THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 88W HAS ALLOWED THE
NORTHERN EXTENSION OF THE WAVE TO SPLIT OFF AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE. THE TROUGH...ALONG WITH THE UPPER LOW... IS PRODUCING
ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NE OF PUERTO RICO FROM
19-25N BETWEEN 59-64W. A 1030 MB HIGH IN THE MID- ATLANTIC NEAR
35N46W CONTINUES TO PRODUCE MAINLY ELY SURFACE FLOW WITH FAIR
WEATHER FROM 15N-30N BETWEEN 20W-50W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 24N AND W OF 70W.  A LOW IS
FURTHER E NEAR 26N62W. A LARGE HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
20N27W.

$$
MUNDELL

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