[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170549
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUL 17 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W S OF 18N MOVING W AT 15 KT.
MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ALONG THE COAST OF W
AFRICA...E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 13W-18W.

HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W S OF 22N MOVING W
15-20 KT. THE WAVE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V CLOUD PATTERN
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 52W-57W. WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR 23N60W. MOISTURE FROM THIS WAVE
WILL AFFECT THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY AND PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS ON TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE IS ALSO ENHANCING THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS SURINAME AND GUYANA.

WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 76W S OF
18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
OVER THE WESTERN PART OF COLOMBIA PROBABLY RELATED TO THE WAVE
AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER SOUTH MEXICO ALONG 92W S OF 19N
MOVING W AROUND 15 KT.  CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS ALONG THE COAST OF
GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR. THERE IS SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N17W 7N30W 6N40W 9N55W 9N62W.
OUTSIDE OF TROPICAL WAVES...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
5N-8N BETWEEN 26W-35W...AND FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 35W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1017 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 27N86W. PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS VERY WEAK ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF WITH LIGHT
WINDS THROUGHOUT.  A STATIONARY FRONT IS INLAND FROM S GEORGIA
TO N LOUISIANA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER S LOUISIANA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND S GEORGIA HAS
DIMINISHED. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF WATERS NEAR 29N88W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR CUBA AT 21N80W. ELY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND MODERATE
TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATE MOST OF THE GULF. EXPECT CONTINUED
CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF DUE TO THE STATIONARY FRONT FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF CUBA AT 21N80W.
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CIRCULATION WSW TO BELIZE AND GUATEMALA.
THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION OVER THE NW AND SW CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN
78W-85W. PART OF THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS AFFECTING THE
CARIBBEAN PLAINS OF NICARAGUA AND NORTHERN HONDURAS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 18N-21N WEST OF 75W. WLY
FLOW AND SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
SOUTH OF THE TROUGH...WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE NW OF
THE TROUGH. TYPICAL SURFACE TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA OUTSIDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVES. THE STRONGEST WINDS
OF 25 KT ARE FOUND JUST OFF OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST.  AN UPPER
HIGH REMAINS OVER E VENZUELA NEAR 7N63W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA MAINLY E TO 32N68W
AND BEYOND. SOUTH OF THE RIDGE...AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF CUBA TO ANOTHER LOW CENTERED NE OF
PUERTO RICO NEAR 23N60W. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC JUST E OF THE TROUGH AXIS WHICH LIES
ALONG 60W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC
NEAR 32N74W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS W TO S GEORGIA.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 29N-32N WEST OF 79W.
BETWEEN 73W-79W.  A 1031 MB HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC VERY CLOSE TO
THE AZORES IS PRODUCING MAINLY ELY SURFACE FLOW WITH FAIR
WEATHER FROM 15N-30N EAST OF 50W. TYPICAL PATCHES OF
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THAT ARE. A LARGE HIGH IS CENTERED
OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 18N21W COVERING MOST OF THE E
ATLANTIC.

$$
GR



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