[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170010
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUL 16 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS INTRODUCED ALONG 21W/22W S OF 18N MOVING W AT
15 KT.  POSITION IS BASED ON UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FROM DAKAR
SENEGAL AND SATELLITE IMAGERY.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 20W-23W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA...E OF THE WAVE
AXIS... FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 10W-17W.

HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 22N MOVING W
15-20 KT. THE WAVE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V CLOUD PATTERN
WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 50W-54W.  MOISTURE FROM THIS WAVE
SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE LESSER ANTILLES ON MONDAY AND PUERTO
RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON TUESDAY.

WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 74W/75W S
OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.  A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE
WAVE AXIS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 71W-73W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER JAMAICA FROM 17N-19N
BETWEEN 76W-79W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND GUATEMALA
ALONG 91W S OF 21N MOVING W AROUND 15 KT.  CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 13N-21N BETWEEN
89W-93W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N17W 6N30W 6N40W 9N55W 9N62W.
OUTSIDE OF TROPICAL WAVES... ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 26W-32W...AND FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 35W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 27N86W. PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS VERY WEAK ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF WITH LIGHT
WINDS THROUGHOUT.  A STATIONARY FRONT IS INLAND FROM S GEORGIA
TO S LOUISIANA.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER S LOUISIANA AND S MISSISSIPPI FROM 30N-32N
BETWEEN 88W-93W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND S GEORGIA FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN
81W-88W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE
GULF NEAR 29N85W...JUST SLIGHTLY NE OF THE SURFACE HIGH.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 25N-35N BETWEEN 70W-95W.  AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR CUBA AT 21N80W.  NELY CYCLONIC FLOW
IS OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO S OF 25N AND E OF 90W.  SUBSIDENCE
COVERS MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.  EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION
OVER THE NE GULF DUE TO THE STATIONARY FRONT FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE ABOUT THE TROPICAL WAVES
AFFECTING THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. TYPICAL SURFACE
TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA OUTSIDE OF THE
TROPICAL WAVES.  STRONGEST VELOCITIES OF 25 KT ARE RECORDED BY
BUOY 42058 N OF COLOMBIA.  ADDITIONAL PATCHES OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
FROM 7N-16N BETWEEN 80W-86W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER CENTRAL CUBA FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 77W-81W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR CUBA AT 21N80W.
CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 15N BETWEEN 75W-90W.  WLY FLOW AND
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO MOVE W WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.  A NEW TROPICAL WAVE WILL ALSO AFFECT THE E
CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1013 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N77W.  A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS W TO S GEORGIA.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 73W-79W.  A 1029 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE ATLANTIC NEAR 37N34W IS PRODUCING MAINLY ELY SURFACE
FLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 20W-60W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 25N AND W OF
70W.  A LOW IS FURTHER E AT 23N59W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 18N
BETWEEN 50W-70W.  A LARGE HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF W
AFRICA NEAR 18N16W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 5N AND E OF 40W.

$$
FORMOSA


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