[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 161748
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUL 16 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W S OF 20N MOVING
W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE SHOWS AN INVERTED-V CLOUD PATTERN AND
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE
AXIS FROM 17N-19N WITHIN 240 NM W OF AXIS. MOISTURE FROM THIS
WAVE SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE LESSER ANTILLES ON MONDAY AND
PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON TUESDAY.

WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 72W S OF
18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALSO ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS JUST SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA.

TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN N PENINSULA AND
GUATEMALA ALONG 89W/90W S OF 21N MOVING W AROUND 15 KT.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 300 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N17W 6N40W 6N45W 9N55W 8N60W.
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN
16W-22W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM S OF THE
AXIS FROM 45W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF FROM 21N-26N ALONG 95W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE COAST OF MEXICO
S OF 23N. A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF NEAR
27N85W. PRES PATTERN REMAINS VERY WEAK ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF
WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER OFF THE SW COAST
OF MEXICO. THE FLOW AROUND THESE TO FEATURES IS PRODUCING UPPER
DIFFLUENCE AND ENHANCING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SURFACE DISCUSSED ABOVE. UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM 20N TO 30N
BETWEEN 85W-95W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN JUST S OF CUBA NEAR 21N78W. TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
CIRCULATION W TO BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE TROUGH. WLY FLOW
AND SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN S OF
THE TROUGH...WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE NW OF THE
TROUGH. AN UPPER HIGH REMAINS OVER E VENEZUELA NEAR NEAR 7N64W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA NE TO 32N72W.
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM 32N49W TO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
NEAR 23N62W CONTINUING TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS WITHIN 240 NM W OF THE TROUGH
AXIS....WITH HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED NE WITHIN 200 NM
E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
32N35W TO 25N26W. E OF THE RIDGE AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA
FROM 32N22W TO 27N29N. S OF THE TROUGH A LARGE UPPER HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER W AFRICA COVERING THE ATLC E S OF 25N E OF 42W.
DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE RIDGE
FROM 20N-28N E OF 35W.

$$
DGS


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