[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161059
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUL 16 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 51W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING
WEST 15-20 KT. THE WAVE SHOWS AN INVERTED-V CLOUD PATTERN AND
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE
AXIS FROM 17N-19N.  MOISTURE FROM THIS WAVE SHOULD BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE LESSER ANTILLES ON MONDAY AND PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS ON TUESDAY.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 70W
SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS NOW ENTERED A
MORE MOIST UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT THAT IS MASKING THE SURFACE
SIGNATURE. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO ON THE
NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS JUST SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE
ALONG 87W/88W SOUTH OF 22N MOVING WEST AROUND 15 KT. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS OVER NE
HONDURAS AND THE COASTAL WATERS.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N17W 8N30W 8N45W 9N55W 10N62W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
MOVING OUT OF W AFRICA FROM 10.5N-14.5N BETWEEN 16W-19W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY S OF THE ITCZ FROM 2N-6N
BETWEEN 30W-50W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N EAST OF
20W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC A SURFACE TROUGH LIES ALONG 94W/95W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE COAST OF MEXICO.
SURFACE WINDS REMAINS NEAR 10 KT THROUGHOUT THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE UPPER LOW WHICH HAS DRIFTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS FATHER WEST OVER NW MEXICO MOVING W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE GULF WEST OF 94W. AN UPPER HIGH
DOMINATES SOUTH MEXICO...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA. RIDGING WITH SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF
23N AND E OF 92W. THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WWD. A WEAK 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE NE SECTOR OF THE GULF. A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE SE U.S. WILL REACH THE NE GULF COAST/NORTH
FLORIDA ON MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
OUTSIDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVES...THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND CUBA TO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
24N90W. WLY FLOW AND SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER HIGH REMAINS OVER E VENEZUELA
NEAR NEAR 7N64W. TYPICAL SURFACE TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE
AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED JUST SOUTH
OF HISPANIOLA FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 68W-71W.  ADDITIONAL PATCHES
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE BETWEEN E CUBA AND JAMAICA
AND ALSO WITHIN 60/80 NM WEST OF JAMAICA. THE UPPER TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE AFFECTING THE SW
CARIBBEAN...NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND WESTERN VENEZUELA PROBABLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE EPAC ITCZ.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1031 MB HIGH IS OVER THE ATLANTIC NEAR 38N34W EXTENDING A
RIDGE WWD ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF. THIS SYSTEM IS
PRODUCING MAINLY ELY SURFACE FLOW WITH STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS FROM
20N-30N BETWEEN 20W-60W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE COVERS
THE W ATLC AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM A HIGH LOCATED OVER
ALABAMA. SOUTH OF THE RIDGE LIES AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH CROSSES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND CUBA TO THE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 24N90W. A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BETWEEN THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND EASTERN  CUBA WHILE A CLOSE UPPER LOW IS
FURTHER E AT 26N58W. BOTH LOWS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH. A LARGE UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
W AFRICA COVERING THE ATLC EAST OF 40W. DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS
BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 60W-80W.

$$
GR





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