[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160551
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUL 16 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ADJUSTED AHEAD NEAR 49W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING
WEST 15-20 KT BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE DATA. THE
WAVE SHOWS AN INVERTED-V PATTERN AND SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 17N-18.5N.
MOISTURE FROM THIS WAVE SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE LESSER
ANTILLES ON MONDAY AND PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON
TUESDAY.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 65W
SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS NOW ENTERED A
MORE MOIST UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT THAT IS MASKING THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION AND CONVECTION.  THE SAN JUAN RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...THE MONA
PASSAGE AND THE EASTERN PORTION OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 84W/85W
SOUTH OF 22N MOVING WEST AROUND 15 KT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE JUST BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS OVER NE
HONDURAS...THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NICARAGUA...AND THE SW
CARIBBEAN.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N17W 7N30W 7N40W 8N50W 9N60W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
MOSTLY INLAND OVER W AFRICA FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 8W-17W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE ITCZ FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN
40W-48W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC A SURFACE TROUGH LIES ALONG 91W/92W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE OVER THE SE GULF NW OF KEY WEST IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.
SURFACE WINDS REMAINS NEAR 10 KT THROUGHOUT THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE UPPER LOW WHICH HAS DRIFTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS FATHER WEST OVER N MEXICO NEAR 28N106W
MOVING W. THIS LOW IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG
WESTERN MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS
PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE GULF WEST OF
94W. AN UPPER HIGH DOMINATES SOUTH MEXICO...THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. RIDGING WITH SUBSIDENCE
IS OVER THE E GULF N OF 23N AND E OF 92W. THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WWD. A WEAK FRONTAL
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE SE U.S. WILL REACH THE NE GULF COAST
ON MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
OUTSIDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVES...THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA IS AN UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS MOVED SLIGHTLY SOUTH
SINCE YESTERDAY. THE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS AND CUBA TO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N90W. WLY FLOW AND
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
SEA. AN UPPER HIGH REMAINS OVER E VENEZUELA NEAR NEAR 7N64W.
TYPICAL SURFACE TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE AREA. THE
STRONGEST WINDS OF 20 KT ARE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE SEEN JUST SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 68W-72W.  ADDITIONAL PATCHES OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE BETWEEN E CUBA AND JAMAICA AND
ALSO WITHIN 60/80 NM WEST OF JAMAICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1031 MB HIGH IS OVER THE ATLANTIC NEAR 38N33W EXTENDING A
RIDGE WWD ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS SYSTEM IS
PRODUCING MAINLY ELY SURFACE FLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER FROM 20N-30N
BETWEEN 20W-60W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC
FROM A HIGH LOCATED OVER ALABAMA. SOUTH OF THE RIDGE LIES AN
UPPER TROUGH WHICH CROSSES ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS
AND CUBA TO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N90W. A DEVELOPING UPPER
LOW IS OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 22N74W. A CLOSE LOW IS FURTHER E AT
26N58W. BOTH LOWS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
TROUGH. A LARGE UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER W AFRICA COVERING
THE ATLC EAST OF 40W. DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS BEHIND THE UPPER
TROUGH FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 60W-80W.

$$
GR




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