[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152328
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W/38W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST NEAR
15 KT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO BECOME LESS DEFINED THAN IT WAS
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 64W
SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS NOW ENTERED A
MORE MOIST UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT THAT IS MASKING THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION AND CONVECTION.  SAN JUAN RADAR SHOWS CONVECTION W
OF PUERTO RICO OVER THE MONA CHANNEL AND HISPANIOLA.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN
67W-73W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 83W SOUTH OF
22N MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS BETTER ORGANIZED THAN
THE ONES FURTHER EAST.  A LINE OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 74W-84W.  CLUSTERS OF
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTEND FROM PANAMA TO JAMAICA FROM
8N-18N BETWEEN 77W-85W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 7N20W 5N30W 8N38W 8N50W
9N60W.  CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER W AFRICA FROM 9N-16N BETWEEN
7W-17W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE ITCZ FROM
2N-6N BETWEEN 42W-46W.  THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO BE RELATIVELY
QUIET WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 17W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S OF LOUISIANA TO
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 28N91W 24N92W 20N91W MOVING W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER LOUISIANA WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF
30N92W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 87W-91W.   SURFACE WINDS ARE PREDOMINATELY
ONLY 10 KT THROUGHOUT THE GULF OF MEXICO.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER N
MEXICO NEAR 29N104W MOVING W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 20N-36N
BETWEEN 95W-110W.  UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS
PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER S MEXICO FROM
19N-23N BETWEEN 97W-100W.  RIDGING WITH SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
NE GULF N OF 24N AND E OF 92W.  EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO BOTH MOVE W IN TANDEM THUS SHIFTING
CONVECTION W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE ABOUT THE TROPICAL WAVES
AFFECTING THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  TYPICAL SURFACE TRADEWINDS ARE
NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA OUTSIDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVES.
STRONGEST VELOCITIES OF 20 KT ARE RECORDED BY BUOY 42058 N OF
COLOMBIA.  ADDITIONAL PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA FROM 5N-12N
BETWEEN 62W-78W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... WLY FLOW AND
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  EXPECT
CONVECTION TO MOVE W WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1030 MB HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC NEAR 38N35W IS PRODUCING MAINLY
ELY SURFACE FLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN
20W-60W.    IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LOW IS OVER THE BAHAMAS
NEAR 23N74W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM18N-24N BETWEEN 70W-84W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 73W-76W.
ANOTHER LOW IS FURTHER E AT 33N45W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 25N
BETWEEN 40W-53W.  A LARGE HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF W
AFRICA NEAR 21N30W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 10N AND E OF 40W.

$$
FORMOSA


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net