[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151728
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST NEAR 15
KT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO BECOME LESS DEFINED THAN IT WAS OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE HAS ENTERED THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG
62W/63W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS NOW
ENTERED A MORE MOIST UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND MIGHT BE AIDING
IN DEVELOPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES. VERY LITTLE WAVE SIGNATURE IS NOTED ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADJUSTED AHEAD TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
ALONG 79W SOUTH OF 22N MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS
SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED THAN THE ONES FURTHER EAST...HOWEVER
IT AS WELL IS NOT VERY WELL DEFINED. THE WAVE WAS ADJUSTED AHEAD
DUE TO A FEW BUOY/SHIPS OBSERVATIONS WHICH DISPLAYED SOME WIND
SHIFTS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS AHEAD OF
THE WAVE AXIS FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 80W-83W. DISORGANIZED
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXTEND WELL BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS.
FOR MORE DISCUSSION ON THE CARIBBEAN WAVES REFER TO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA DISCUSSION.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 6N24W 8N39W 10N60W. SMALL
CLUSTERS OF WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF
AFRICA OUT TO 21W. THIS PRECIP APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
ANOTHER RATHER WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WHICH WILL INTRODUCED IF IT
HOLDS TOGETHER LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...THE ITCZ
CONTINUES TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH A FEW PATCHES OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 25W-33W AND 40W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY QUIET THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS LINGERING IN THE CENTRAL
GULF...AS OF 1500 UTC...THE BOUNDARY LIES FROM THE LOUISIANA
COASTLINE SOUTHWARD TO 24N91W. THIS BOUNDARY IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. DRY/STABLE
AIR IS PUSHING IN BEHIND THE WEAK FEATURE SUPPLYING FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA. THE UPPER LOW WHICH HAS
DRIFTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS WEEK IS FARTHER WEST OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE
DEVELOPED NEAR THE MEXICAN COASTLINE FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN
96W-98W IN A NARROW AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOIST
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS. SURFACE WINDS ARE LIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION. THE DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WESTWARD
ACROSS THE GULF DRYING OUT A GOOD PORTION OF THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN GULF TOMORROW AND MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN FEATURES IN THE CARIBBEAN ARE THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES IN
THE REGION. THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WAVE IS WEAK AND ILL-DEFINED.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE
LIKELY ENHANCED BY THE ITCZ AND MOIST UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS.
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WAVE IS BETTER ORGANIZED. MUCH OF THE MOST
ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS AHEAD OF THE ANALYZED WAVE AXIS IN
THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN 80W-84W. SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE ALSO OCCURRING BETWEEN THESE WAVES ACROSS THE GREATER
ANTILLES AND OPEN WATERS. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS IS CONTRIBUTED
MOSTLY TO A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN THE EASTERN
BAHAMAS. TO SUMMARIZE...ESSENTIALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE DRIEST AREA IS
WEST OF 84W ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IS PRESENT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1031 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN AZORES EXTENDING A
SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLC...FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN GULF.
THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING MAINLY ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH
SCATTERED PATCHES OF  MOISTURE. A SMALL WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALONG 63W FROM 27N-30N WHERE A WEAK WIND SHIFT AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE SEEN IN THE AREA. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT AREA OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE ATLANTIC EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS SOUTH OF 26N BETWEEN 62W-75W. THESE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL
LOW WITH SOME INFLUENCE FROM THE TROPICAL WAVES IN THE
CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING COVERS
THE REGION WEST OF 75W. A WEAK UPPER LOW IS FURTHER E NEAR
30N47W. AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC ANCHORED FROM AN
UPPER HIGH LOCATED NORTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 21N24W.
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC.

$$
CANGIALOSI


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