[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151051
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUL 15 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 15-20 KT.
NO DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. MOISTURE FROM
THIS WAVE SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE LESSER ANTILLES ON MONDAY
AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON TUESDAY.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS VERY CLOSE TO THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG
60W/61W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST AROUND 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS PRESENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. THIS WAVE IS
FORECAST TO PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO EARLY SUNDAY.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 76W/77W SOUTH
OF 20N MOVING WEST AROUND 15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS FROM 15N-20N. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 79W-84W.
THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTH FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND WESTERN CUBA SUNDAY EVENING.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N15W 9N32W 9N40W 9N50W 10N59W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100/130 NM SOUTH
OF THE AXIS EAST OF 32W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
ARE WITHIN 80/100 NM SOUTH WEST OF 39W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SE COAST OF
LOUISIANA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 90W/91W. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. AN EAST TO
WEST RIDGE PERSIST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. WIND ARE
MAINLY LIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A
WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR
25N99W MOVING W. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED
FROM THE EPAC ACROSS SOUTH MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER THE W GULF WEST OF 95W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. EXPECT THE
SURFACE TROUGH AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO BOTH MOVE W IN
TANDEM...TAKING ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH IT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TYPICAL SURFACE TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA
OUTSIDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 20 KT ARE
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN
79W-84W. A LINE OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS JUST
S OF CUBA BETWEEN 77W-83W...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER HIGH COVERS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE NW
CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS FROM 14N-20N WEST OF
80W. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS S OF 14N.  ANOTHER UPPER HIGH IS
LOCATED OVER E VENEZUELA NEAR 6N63W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING
MAINLY N ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE HIGH COVERING NORTHERN
SOUTH AMERICA AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN
ALOFT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
AND CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION OVER EASTERN
VENEZUELA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE WESTERN AZORES EXTENDING A RIDGE
ACROSS THE ATLC...FLORIDA AND THE N GULF. THIS FEATURE IS
PRODUCING MAINLY ELY SURFACE FLOW WITH ONLY PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 20W-60W.  A SMALL AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS JUST N OF HISPANIOLA FROM
18N-20N BETWEEN 67W-70W POSSIBLY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A SHORT
WAVE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS ACROSS THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER TROUGH...ALSO KNOWN AS TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
EXTENDS MAINLY EAST TO WEST ALONG 24/25N FROM AN UPPER LOW
LOCATED NEAR 28N58W ACROSS THE STRAIT OF FLORIDA TO THE E GULF
OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LOW IS FORMING ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR
23N73W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THAT
AREA...AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. DRY AIR AND SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS COVERING THE W ATLC.
ANOTHER LOW IS FURTHER E AT 30N47W. AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE
E ATLC FROM AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED NORTH OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS NEAR 22N24W.  ACCORDING TO THE 15/0900 UTC SAHARAN AIR
LAYER FROM CIMSS...THE LEADING EDGE OF THE AFRICAN DUST REACHES
THE LESSER ANTILLES.

$$
GR






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