[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150555
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT JUL 15 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 15-20 KT.
MOST OF THE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE ARE BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS FROM 2N-17N BETWEEN 30W-34W.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG
59W/60W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST AROUND 20 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS PRESENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. THIS WAVE IS
FORECAST TO PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO EARLY SUNDAY.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 74W/75W SOUTH
OF 20N MOVING WEST AROUND 15 KT. THE WAVE IS ENHANCING THE
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY OVER WEST VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA
FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 70W-76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 15N-17N. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTH
FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND WESTERN CUBA SUNDAY EVENING.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N14W 7N25W 8N32W 10N45W 10N58W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS EAST OF 23W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120/140 NM SOUTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
38W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SE COAST OF
LOUISIANA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 89/90W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. AN EAST TO
WEST RIDGE PERSIST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. WIND ARE
MAINLY LIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A
WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR
25N99W MOVING W. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED
FROM THE EPAC ACROSS SOUTH MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER THE W GULF WEST OF 95W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO
BOTH MOVE W IN TANDEM...TAKING ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH
IT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TYPICAL SURFACE TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA
OUTSIDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 20-25 KT
ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 78W-80W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS JUST THE S OF CUBA BETWEEN
77W-83W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER HIGH COVERS CENTRAL
AMERICA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
FROM 14N-20N WEST OF 80W. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS S OF 13N.
ANOTHER UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED OVER E VENEZUELA NEAR 6N-63W WITH
A RIDGE EXTENDING MAINLY N ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES.
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
HIGH COVERING NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
OVER WESTERN VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA...WHERE THERE IS
ALSO A TROPICAL WAVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1030 MB HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC NEAR 38N32W IS PRODUCING MAINLY
ELY SURFACE FLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN
20W-65W.  A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS JUST
N OF HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 67W-70W POSSIBLY DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF A SHORT WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS
MAINLY EAST TO WEST ALONG 24/25N FROM A LOW LOCATED NEAR 28N58W
ACROSS THE STRAIT OF FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. DRY AIR IS
BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE W ATLC AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. ANOTHER LOW IS FURTHER E AT 30N47W. AN UPPER RIDGE
DOMINATES THE E ATLC FROM AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED NORTH OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 22N24W.  ACCORDING TO THE 15/0300 UTC
SAHARAN AIR LAYER FROM CIMSS...THE LEADING EDGE OF THE AFRICAN
DUST IS REACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES.

$$
GR





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