[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141724
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUL 14 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY AHEAD ALONG 31W SOUTH OF
16N MOVING WEST 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE IS MUCH LESS DEFINED TODAY
THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY. SOME CYCLONIC TURNING IS STILL EVIDENT ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...HOWEVER VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG
56W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 15-20 KT. VERY LITTLE SIGNATURE AND
PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 71W SOUTH OF
21N MOVING WEST 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN WEAKENING OVER THE
PAST DAY OR TWO AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THE WAVE AXIS
REMAINS EASY TO LOCATE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY
BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN 300 NM OR SO...CONCENTRATED MOSTLY N
OF 17N. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS DOES SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
THE WINDS BEHIND THE AXIS ESPECIALLY IN TSTMS. CONDITIONS ARE
NOT FAVORABLE AND DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MAINLY IN THE EAST PACIFIC REGION EXCEPT FOR
THE NORTHERN EXTENSION WHICH CUTS ACROSS S MEXICO. THIS WAVE
AXIS IS ALONG 95W SOUTH OF 18N. A FAIR AMOUNT OF CYCLONIC
TURNING IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 8N. THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCING
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 7N23W 9N40W 11N55W 10N63W.
NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST
OF AFRICA OUT TO 20W FROM 5N-12N. THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSSIBLY BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW TROPICAL WAVE. OTHERWISE...THE ITCZ IS
RELATIVELY QUIET WITH ONLY ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 240
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LINGER AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. AS OF 1500 UTC...THE BOUNDARY LIES ALONG
29N88W 22N85W. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN
45 NM OF THE AXIS WITH SOME MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
FARTHER EAST OFF THE W COAST OF FLORIDA. IN THE WESTERN
GULF...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED CLOSE TO THE MEXICAN COAST
NEAR 24N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ON THE
MOIST EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION FROM SOUTH MEXICO
TO THE WESTERN GULF W OF 91W. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOST ORGANIZED
IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 93W-96W WHERE A
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EAST PACIFIC MAY BE AIDING IN TRIGGERING
THIS ACTIVITY. THE UPPER LOW AND WEAKENING SFC TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD TAKING ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH
IT. MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL GULF THIS WEEKEND AS DRY/STABLE UPPER LEVEL AIR  PUSHES
WESTWARD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. MORE
IMPRESSIVE ACTIVITY IS NEAR THE BASE OF THE WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN AND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WHERE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION LIES OVER VENEZUELA...COLOMBIA AND PANAMA
FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 67W-80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER W CUBA
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...NORTHERLY FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS A
GOOD PORTION OF THE W CARIBBEAN WEST OF 75W. A NARROW UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS HAITI TO NEAR 14N74W.
MOIST SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PULLING MOISTURE FROM SOUTH
AMERICA TO THE EASTERN ISLANDS EMBEDDED WITH THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GENERATED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE. AS THE WAVE CONTINUES
TO MOVE WESTWARD...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD WITH IT...TO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN ON SAT AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ON SUNDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AT THE SURFACE...THE PREDOMINANT FEATURE IS THE SPRAWLING
BERMUDA-AZORES RIDGE. FAIR WEATHER LIES UNDER THE RIDGE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN. THERE IS ONE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN
63W-70W. THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY DUE TO THE CARIBBEAN
TROPICAL WAVE AND A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW NEAR 25N64W. ELSEWHERE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER RIDGING LIES WEST OF 65W. THE UPPER
LOW AIDING IN TRIGGERING UNSETTLED WEATHER NEAR 25N64W HAS
TROUGHING WHICH EXTENDS TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SLIGHT RIDGING
LIES TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW BETWEEN 50W-60W WITH A NARROW
UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN 40W-50W. UPPER RIDGING IS IN PLACE EAST OF
40W. NONE OF THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...BESIDES FOR THE UPPER
LOW MENTIONED EARLIER...ARE CAUSING ANY LARGE AREAS OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

$$
CANGIALOSI



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