[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141111
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUL 14 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W/29W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. CLEAR EVIDENCE OF CYCLONIC TURNING SHOWS UP
IN CURRENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN
26W AND 34W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
OCCUR FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 28W AND 31W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W/54W SOUTH OF 14N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS WAVE REACHES THE
FRENCH GUIANA/SURINAME BORDER. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 20 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N52W 10N55W 11N58W 11N60W
11N62W...PROBABLY MORE WITH THE ITCZ THAN ANYTHING ELSE.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE HAS REACHED THE EASTERN END OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ALONG 69W/70W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST
15 KT. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN NEAR 22N64W TO 16N72W. THE WAVE IS MOVING RIGHT THROUGH
THIS AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 13N TO 25N BETWEEN 57W AND 68W.

THE NORTHERN END OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 94W MOVING
THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN INTERIOR MEXICO SOUTH OF 20N WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
PROBABLY ARE MORE RELATED TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER.

...THE ITCZ...
12N15W 11N27W 9N30W 7N40W 8N52W 9N57W 8N66W. NUMEROUS STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS OFF THE
COAST OF GUINEA AND WEST OF SIERRA LEONE FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN
14W AND 17W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 20 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 6N25W 7N20W 9N17W...AND FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN
10W AND 14W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM
10N TO 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW NOW COVERS EVERYTHING FROM
16N TO 32N BETWEEN 88W AND 104W...FROM THE GULF WATERS TO
INTERIOR MEXICO. THE LOW CENTER IS NEAR 24N97W. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN MEXICO SOUTH OF 20N WEST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THE WEATHER PATTERN TO THE EAST OF 88W IS FILLED
WITH A MIXTURE OF UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW FROM RESIDUAL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...A NORTHERN FLORIDA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTER...AND A POSSIBLY-FORMING MIDDLE LEVEL LOW CENTER IN
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SOME DISSIPATING
PRECIPITATION OCCUR EAST OF 89W OVER THE GULF WATERS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ONE MAIN FEATURE IS THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 23N64W INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N73W.
THE 69W/70W TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THIS TROUGH.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 70W
AND BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA. NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
OCCUR IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA FROM 8N TO 10.5N BETWEEN 74W AND
77W...PROBABLY NEAR THE ITCZ. OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OCCURRING OVER PANAMA AND IN NORTHEASTERN COSTA RICA.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE PRECIPITATION
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...PART OF THE WESTWARD
EXTENSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH MANY TIMES EXTENDS FROM
THE DEEP TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA. THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE THAT WAS IN
PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE LAST 5 TO 6 DAYS WEAKENED AND DISAPPEARED.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS
TO THE NORTH OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA 23N64W-
16N73W TROUGH. THIS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF 35N/36N. THE RIDGE GOES FROM CENTRAL
TENNESSEE EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS...AND NORTHEASTWARD
BEYOND 36N64W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM THE
AZORES TO 32N30W TO 29N37W TO A LOW CENTER 27N45W TO A DEVELOPING
LOW CENTER NEAR 25N62W TO ANOTHER LOW CENTER NEAR 22N64W TO
16N72W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS
EVERYWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...EXCEPT FOR MOISTURE FROM 20N
TO 26N BETWEEN 53W AND 68W...FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 57W AND
60W...AND FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 24W AND 33W WITH THE 28W/29W
TROPICAL WAVE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR
12N30W. A TROUGH GOES FROM THE 12N30W LOW CENTER TO 19N31W AND
22N31W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GOES FROM 21N20W TO 28N20W TO
35N17W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS BETWEEN AFRICA AND
SOUTH FLORIDA NORTH OF THE TROPICAL WAVES AND THE ITCZ.

$$
MT


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