[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140611
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUL 14 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE JUST HAS CLEARED THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND IS ALONG 26W/28W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 15 KT.
CLEAR EVIDENCE OF CYCLONIC TURNING SHOWS UP IN CURRENT INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 25W AND 31W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR
FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 27W AND 30W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W SOUTH OF 14N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS WAVE REACHES
FRENCH GUIANA. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 51W AND 53W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE MONA PASSAGE ALONG 68W
SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
RUNS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 23N64W TO 16N73W. THE WAVE IS
MOVING RIGHT THROUGH THIS AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 13N TO 17N
BETWEEN 59W AND 70W...FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 57W AND 60W...AND
FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W.

THE NORTHERN END OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 92W/93W MOVING
THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN THIS PART OF MEXICO...AND ELSEWHERE INLAND IN MEXICO
SOUTH OF 20N...TO THE SOUTH THROUGH WEST OF THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER.

...THE ITCZ...
11N15W 11N26W 11N29W 7N40W 8N51W 8N54W 9N67W. STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN GUINEA AND SIERRA LEONE AND COASTAL
WATERS FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 12W AND 15W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 19W AND 22W...FROM 5N TO 10N
BETWEEN 26W AND 46W...AND FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 36W AND 48W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CYCLONIC FLOW NOW COVERS EVERYTHING
FROM 16N TO 32N BETWEEN 88W AND 104W...FROM THE GULF WATERS TO
INTERIOR MEXICO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN MEXICO FROM
16N TO 20N BETWEEN 91W AND 104W...FROM THE WESTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC INTO SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO. THE WEATHER PATTERN TO THE EAST OF 88W IS FILLED WITH
A MIXTURE OF UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW FROM RESIDUAL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...A NORTHERN FLORIDA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTER...AND A POSSIBLY-FORMING MIDDLE LEVEL LOW CENTER IN
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SOME DISSIPATING
PRECIPITATION ARE FROM WESTERN CUBA TO 28N BETWEEN 80W AND 88W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ONE MAIN FEATURE IS THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 23N64W INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N73W.
THE 68W TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE MONA PASSAGE IS MOVING RIGHT
THROUGH THE AREA OF THIS TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 13N TO 17N
BETWEEN 59W AND 70W...FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 57W AND 60W...AND
FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE WITH THE ITCZ SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 77W AND
84W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. SOME OF THE CLOUD
TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED DURING THE LAST 4 TO 5 HOURS. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE GULF OR URABA AND ADJACENT AREAS
FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 76W AND 79W...AND FROM COSTA RICA TO
NICARAGUA FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 83W AND 85W. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...PART OF THE WESTWARD EXTENSION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH MANY TIMES EXTENDS FROM THE DEEP
TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA.
THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE THAT WAS IN PLACE
FOR MUCH OF THE LAST 5 TO 6 DAYS WEAKENED AND DISAPPEARED.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS
TO THE NORTH OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA 23N64W-
16N73W TROUGH. THIS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF 35N/36N. THE RIDGE GOES FROM CENTRAL
TENNESSEE EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS...AND NORTHEASTWARD
BEYOND 36N64W. IT APPEARS THAT THE 23N64W-16N73W TROUGH HAS
ITS ORIGINS EVEN MORE TO THE NORTHEAST...GOING FROM MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR 36N30W TO A SECOND ONE LOW CENTER
NEAR 30N46W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM 13N TO 26N BETWEEN 55W
AND 65W IS THE ONLY MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DRY AIR...ALONG
WITH THE MOISTURE AROUND THE 26W/28W TROPICAL WAVE...FROM 10N
TO 32N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE BAHAMAS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GOES
FROM 20N29W TO 35N20W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH FLORIDA NORTH OF THE TROPICAL WAVES AND
THE ITCZ.

$$
MT




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net