[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132329
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUL 13 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. LOW-MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS CLEARLY
EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST NEAR 15
KT. LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE AT THE TIME BEING.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 65W/66W
SOUTH OF 22N MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S OF PUERTO RICO FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 63W-66W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO N OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 60W-63W.  FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 85W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN
77W-86W.

...ITCZ...
BESIDES FOR THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
TROPICAL WAVE...THE ITCZ IS RELATIVELY QUIET WITH ONLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 27N86W 19N89W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM FLORIDA TO W CUBA FROM 22N-28N
BETWEEN 81W-85W MOVING W.  SURFACE WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
ARE PREDOMINATELY FROM THE SE AT 10 KT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF
NEAR 23N96W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 16N-30N BETWEEN 87W-105W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE SW GULF FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN
88W-94W.  EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO
BOTH MOVE W IN TANDEM THUS SHIFTING CONVECTION W DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE FOR TWO TROPICAL WAVE
AFFECTING THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  TYPICAL SURFACE TRADEWINDS ARE
NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA OUTSIDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVES.
STRONGEST VELOCITIES OF 25 KT ARE RECORDED BY BUOY 42058 N OF
COLOMBIA.  ADDITIONAL SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS GUATEMALA AND S MEXICO FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN
89W-93W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA FROM
19N-21N BETWEEN 77W-80W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LOW IS S OF
JAMAICA NEAR 16N77W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN
70W-85W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS FROM 12N-20N BETWEEN 70W-85W.
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS S OF 12N.  A HIGH IS E OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 12N58W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 8N-20N BETWEEN
50W-70W.  EXPECT CONVECTION TO MOVE W WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1030 MB HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N45W IS
PRODUCING MAINLY ELY SURFACE FLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER FROM 20N-30N
BETWEEN 20W-75W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A HIGH IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 25N74W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 20N BETWEEN
70W-80W.  A LOW IS FURTHER E AT 23N65W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF
20N BETWEEN 55W-70W.  A LARGE HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF
W AFRICA NEAR 22N22W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 10N AND E OF
45W.

$$
FORMOSA


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