[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 131057
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUL 13 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W SOUTH OF 15N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WEAKENING WITH TIME AND OTHERS
DEVELOPING...ARE FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 19W AND 22W...AND
FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN 23W AND 29W...IN THE ITCZ.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W SOUTH OF 14N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W SOUTH
OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
ISOLATED CELLS ARE FROM 12N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 62W AND 64W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 14N TO 21N BETWEEN 57W AND
62W. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT VERY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OF MOST OF
THE STRONG PRECIPITATION FROM 4 TO 6 HOURS AGO ON THE CARIBBEAN
SEA SIDE HAVE WARMED AND THE PRECIPITATION HAS WEAKENED. A BIG
BALL OF NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
ALONG THE WESTERN COLOMBIA COAST FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 76W AND
79W. THIS MASS OF PRECIPITATION PROBABLY IS RELATED TO THE ITCZ.
MORE NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN WATERS FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 81W AND 86W...
POSSIBLY WITH THE WAVE...AND PROBABLY WITH THE ITCZ.

...THE ITCZ...
13N16W 11N21W 10N24W 8N35W 8N44W 7N48W 6N54W 6N59W. ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
120 TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N30W 8N41W 6N50W 5N59W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CYCLONIC FLOW NOW COVERS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA...THANKS TO THE LOW CENTER WHICH WAS IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA YESTERDAY MORNING...AND WHICH
NOW HAS MOVED INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
SOME UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS MIXED IN WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EAST OF 85W...AS SEEN
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND ON 13/0600 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE
DERIVED WIND DATA. DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING
FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS NORTHWESTWARD TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. PRESSURES
ARE HIGH IN THIS AREA...AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE STRONG PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA HAS WEAKENED...WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
DURING THE LAST 4 TO 6 HOURS. THE NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ON THE WEST COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 76W AND
79W. THE TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED TO 82W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN OFF THE COASTS OF
COLOMBIA/PANAMA/COSTA RICA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE
ACCOMPANYING THE 62W/63W TROPICAL WAVE...IN GENERAL FROM 10N TO
21N BETWEEN 57W AND 63W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ARE IN UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW...IN BETWEEN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
LOW CENTER AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CENTER IS IN THE EAST CENTRAL PART OF THE
AREA NEAR 14N65W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS IN BETWEEN
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA 14N65W HIGH CENTER AND THE 85W RIDGE.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE
GREATER ANTILLES INTO THIS AREA OF DRY AIR.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE AREA FROM 20N
TO 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 80W. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW...IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IN 13/0600 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED
WIND DATA...MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH OF 30N TO 20N
BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER
APPEARS TO BE FORMING IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE AREA FROM 20N TO 30N
BETWEEN 30W AND 77W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 36N33W TO 29N44W TO 26N56W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW IS BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH FLORIDA NORTH OF THE TROPICAL
WAVES AND THE ITCZ. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 22W/24W FROM
18N BEYOND 32N. A SMALL MIDDLE LEVEL LOW CENTER MAY BE FORMING
ABOUT 150 NM WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

$$
MT



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