[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130616
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUL 13 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W/22W SOUTH OF 15N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W SOUTH OF 14N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W/62W SOUTH
OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
ISOLATED CELLS ARE FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 61W AND 63W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 59W AND
61W. THIS WAVE MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION...PRODUCING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER SECTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY. SURFACE PRESSURES REMAIN HIGH IN THE AREA...AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ANY KIND OF DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W/81W SOUTH
OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA COAST AND
ALONG THE EASTERN PANAMA BORDER WITH COLOMBIA FROM 3N TO 10N
BETWEEN 76W AND 80W. OTHER SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN WATERS
SOUTH OF WESTERN PANAMA TO THE CARIBBEAN SEA COAST OF PANAMA
BETWEEN 80W AND THE PANAMA/COSTA RICA BORDER. SOME OF THIS
STRONG PRECIPITATION UNDOUBTEDLY IS RELATED TO THE ITCZ...
AND SOME IS EASILY ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...
13N17W 11N21W 11N23W 9N30W 8N40W 8N44W 7N46W 5N54W 5N59W.
SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC
WATERS FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 23W AND 28W.  SCATTERED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF A LINE FROM NORTHWESTERN SURINAME INTO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL
GUYANA TO NORTHWESTERN COASTAL GUYANA.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CYCLONIC FLOW NOW COVERS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA...THANKS TO THE LOW CENTER WHICH WAS IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA YESTERDAY MORNING...AND WHICH
NOW HAS MOVED INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
SOME UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS MIXED IN WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EAST OF 85W...AS SEEN
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND ON 13/0000 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE
DERIVED WIND DATA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA...RELATED TO THE 80W/81W TROPICAL WAVE...AND
ACCOMPANYING THE ITCZ. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 85W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM CENTRAL NICARAGUA TO THE GULF
OF HONDURAS AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND IN THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO...IN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CENTER IS IN THE EAST CENTRAL PART OF THE
AREA NEAR 14N65W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS IN BETWEEN
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA 14N65W HIGH CENTER AND THE 85W RIDGE.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE
GREATER ANTILLES INTO THIS AREA OF DRY AIR.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE AREA FROM 20N
TO 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 80W. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW...IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IN 13/0000 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED
WIND DATA...MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH OF 30N TO 20N
BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER
MAY FORM IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE AREA FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 30W AND
77W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 36N34W TO
29N45W TO 24N58W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS BETWEEN
AFRICA AND SOUTH FLORIDA NORTH OF THE TROPICAL WAVES AND THE
ITCZ. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 36N20W TO 32N23W TO 21N24W.
A SMALL MIDDLE LEVEL LOW CENTER MAY BE FORMING NEAR 16N28W
WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

$$
MT


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