[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130021
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUL 12 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS INTRODUCED ALONG 20W S OF 14N MOVING W AT
15 KT.  THE WAVE IS POSITIONED BASED ON UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS
...HOVMOLLER DIAGRAMS...AND EXTENDED LOOP SATELLITE IMAGERY.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE ITCZ FROM
6N-14N BETWEEN 18W-24W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS INTRODUCED ALONG 44W S OF 14N MOVING W AT 15
KT.  THE WAVE IS ALSO POSITIONED BASED ON UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS
...HOVMOLLER DIAGRAMS...AND EXTENDED LOOP SATELLITE IMAGERY.
CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 41W-47W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A
1014 MB LOW ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR BARBADOS AT 12N.  THIS WAVE
REMAINS IN A MARGINAL ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. THE TROPICAL WAVE AND AREA OF LOW PRES WILL SPREAD
MOISTURE TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS TONIGHT.  PRESENTLY
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 58W-61W.

A CENTRAL/WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W S
OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS LOST MUCH OF ITS
SIGNATURE AS IT TRAVELED WESTWARD IN A RATHER DRY/STABLE
ENVIRONMENT.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS HOWEVER
OVER N COLOMBIA AND PANAMA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 74W-82W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N14W 8N30W 8N40W 6N50W 6N60W. THE
ITCZ IS FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
18W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO
W CUBA ALONG 28N80W 23N83W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 80W-84W MOVING W.  SURFACE WINDS OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO ARE PREDOMINATELY FROM THE SE AT 10 KT.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N91W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 17N-32N
BETWEEN 83W-100W.  UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS
PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE E GULF FROM
20N-27N BETWEEN 86W-90W.  EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO BOTH MOVE W IN TANDEM THUS SHIFTING
CONVECTION W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE FOR TWO TROPICAL WAVE
AFFECTING THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  TYPICAL SURFACE TRADEWINDS ARE
NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA OUTSIDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVES.
STRONGEST VELOCITIES OF 25 KT ARE RECORDED BY BUOY 42058 N OF
COLOMBIA.  ADDITIONAL SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND THE GULF OF
HONDURAS FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 83W-88W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 78W-83W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... SW FLOW DUE TO CYCLONIC TURNING IS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN N OF 17N AND W OF 83W.  A WEAK RIDGE IS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN S OF 17N BETWEEN 80W-90W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 80W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN 73W-80W.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO MOVE W WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 12N TO MAINTAIN
A HIGH PROBABILITY OF CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN ...
THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER FLORIDA IS PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION NEAR BIMINI WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF 25N79W.  A 1031 MB
HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 37N40W IS PRODUCING MAINLY
ELY SURFACE FLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN
20W-75W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC
NEAR 25N74W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 70W-80W.  A
LOW IS FURTHER E AT 26N62W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 20N BETWEEN
55W-70W.  A LARGE HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA
NEAR 22N22W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 10N AND E OF 45W.

$$
FORMOSA



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