[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121105
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUL 12 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W SOUTH OF 15N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER FROM SIX HOURS AGO
NO LONGER IS ALONG THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN
55W AND 57W.

A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W/77W SOUTH
OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT. THE 14N71W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTER FROM TWELVE HOURS AGO HAS WEAKENED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND IN THE 12/0300 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA. NO
DEEP SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...
11N15W 9N20W 7N30W 6N40W 5N50W 6N54W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 240 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 10N14W 9N23W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 8N26W 7N36W
6N46W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N47W 5N57W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN-TO-SOUTH
CENTRAL SECTION IS AFFECTING THE WEATHER EVERYWHERE IN THE AREA.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM BELIZE TO THE
EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA COAST ARE IN THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
FLOW BETWEEN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW CENTER AND THE
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN CENTRAL AMERICA. SCATTERED
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE SOUTH OF ANDROS ISLAND
FROM 23N TO 24N BETWEEN 77W AND 78W. OTHER AREAS OF PRECIPITATION
OVER ANDROS ISLAND AND ELSEWHERE FROM 22.5N TO 25.5N BETWEEN 77W
AND 80W MAY BE SEEING PRECIPITATION ALSO...STILL...AS SOME OF
THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE UNDERGONE WARMING DURING THE LAST FOUR TO
FIVE HOURS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS FROM 27N TO 28N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SPINNING AROUND THE LOW CENTER IN THE GULF
WATERS FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 88W AND 92W. ANOTHER MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 21N106W IN SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL
MEXICO. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4-E IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
ALSO EASILY IS CONTRIBUTING SOME UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF IT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA/
EASTERN PANAMA BORDER...AND ALONG THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF PANAMA
BETWEEN 80W AND SOUTHEASTERN COSTA RICA ARE PROBABLY RELATED TO
THE ITCZ. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN 80W AND COASTAL
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE REST OF COSTA RICA AND EASTERN
HONDURAS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM
SOUTHERN BELIZE TO 20N ALONG THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...
WITHIN 100 NM FROM SHORE...UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG
84W. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW...ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THE RIDGE...COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA UNTIL 75W. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALSO COVERS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE AREA...SOUTH OF 13N74W 16N70W 20N66W. MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE TWO AREAS OF
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THE 76W/77W TROPICAL WAVE IS SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALSO IS
REACHING THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...MOVING OVER
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NOW. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH DRY AIR
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM ONE AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TOWARD
ANOTHER ONE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE PRECIPITATION IN
THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA IS IN DIFFLUENT FLOW IN
BETWEEN THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW CENTER AND THE 84W UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 70W...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER IS NEAR 30N69W. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
21N64W TO 24N69W TO 30N69W BEYOND 34N68W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN THANKS TO
A 34N37W LOW CENTER. A TROUGH GOES FROM THIS CENTER TO 30N42W
28N51W 27N63W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EVERYWHERE IN
THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 17N/18N BETWEEN 30W AND 72W.
A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 24N58W 30N55W 34N52W BREAKS UP THE BROAD
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH FLORIDA.

$$
MT


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net