[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 120552
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUL 12 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/55W SOUTH OF 15N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE
WAVE NEAR 12N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS...WITH WARMING CLOUD
TOP TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING WITH TIME...FROM 12N TO 15N
BETWEEN 53W AND 56W.

A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W SOUTH OF
20N MOVING WEST 15 KT. THE 14N71W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTER FROM TWELVE HOURS AGO HAS WEAKENED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND IN THE 12/0300 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA.
NO DEEP SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...
11N15W 9N20W 7N30W 6N40W 7N53W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 240 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 10N13W 8N22W 8N27W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N28W
6N36W 6N44W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 6N47W 7N55W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTION
IS AFFECTING WEATHER EVERYWHERE IN THE AREA. NUMEROUS STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN GUATEMALA AND SOUTHERN
BELIZE TO THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF BELIZE AND PARTS OF THE
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA ARE IN THE UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW CENTER
AND THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN CENTRAL AMERICA.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALSO ARE OCCURRING IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC IN THE UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OCCURRING FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST WATERS OF CUBA TO ANDROS
ISLAND BETWEEN 76W AND 80W. THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA ARE
IN THE MIDDLE OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN EAST OF 70W...THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LOW CENTER...
AND UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM CENTRAL AMERICA. ANOTHER
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 20N105W IN SOUTHWESTERN
COASTAL MEXICO. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4-E IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN ALSO EASILY IS CONTRIBUTING SOME UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF IT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 84W. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW...ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE...COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA UNTIL 75W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALSO COVERS THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA...SOUTH OF 13N74W
16N70W 20N66W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS IN THE MIDDLE OF
THESE TWO AREAS OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THE 75W/76W TROPICAL WAVE
IS SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT. A LITTLE BIT OF UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALSO IS REACHING THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA...MOVING TOWARD HISPANIOLA NOW. THE WAVE IS MOVING
THROUGH DRY AIR ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM ONE AREA OF
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TOWARD ANOTHER ONE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. THE PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA
IS IN DIFFLUENT FLOW IN BETWEEN THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW CENTER
AND THE 84W UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 70W...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER IS NEAR 30N69W. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
21N64W TO 24N69W TO 30N69W BEYOND 34N68W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN THANKS TO
A 35N36W LOW CENTER. A TROUGH GOES FROM THIS CENTER TO 30N42W
28N51W 27N63W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EVERYWHERE IN
THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 17N/18N BETWEEN 30W AND 72W.
A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 24N59W 29N55W 33N53W 37N50W BREAKS UP
THE BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH
FLORIDA.

$$
MT


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