[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112347
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUL 11 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 15N MOVING WNW AT AROUND 15 KT
WITH A 1012 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N. THIS SYSTEM HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...BUT ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. A
SMALL CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N-13N BETWEEN 52W-53W. THE WAVE
WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT AND THU.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W/74W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A
SMALL CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA IS
PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 7N30W 7N45W 7N50W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 3N-10N E
OF 52W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS IN THE E GULF NEAR 24N85W WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING MAINLY WEST ACROSS THE GULF TO THE
COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 20N97W. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER
OF THE N GULF. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS SOUTH
MEXICO INTO THE S GULF PRODUCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA. A DIFFLUENT
FLOW EAST OF THE UPPER LOW IS ENHANCING THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. AT THE SURFACE...THE ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE N
GULF GIVING THE AREA E/SE WINDS OF AROUND 10 KT. THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 76W ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS
BEING ADVECTED ACROSS MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE
W CARIBBEAN WHERE THERE ARE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN JUST
SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM AN UPPER HIGH
LOCATED NEAR 12N52W COVERS THE FAR E CARIBBEAN E OF 65W. UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE HIGH IS SPREADING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA AND THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. ONCE AGAIN...SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG
CUBA. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS ENHANCING THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. MODERATE/STRONG TRADEWINDS BLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN BUT ARE BELOW GALE FORCE. THE HIGHEST VELOCITIES OF
25-30 KT ARE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 28N66W WITH UPPER RIDGE
COVERING THE ATLC FROM 60W-80W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE W OF THE UPPER
RIDGE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. AN UPPER HIGH IS
IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N52W COVERING THE AREA S OF 19N
FROM 40W-63W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF
21N FROM 35W-50W WITH THE UPPER LOW N OF THE REGION. A SURFACE
TROUGH REFLECTION ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 51N51W THEN CONTINUES SSW
TO 22N57W. AT THE SURFACE...THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS FIRMLY ANCHORED OVER THE ATLC AS IS USUAL FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING MODERATE ELY WINDS ACROSS
THE ATLC.

$$
GR


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