[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111039
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUL 11 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT WITH A
1013 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N. NEITHER WAVE OR LOW ARES
WELL DEFINED. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N
BETWEEN 49W-51W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
REMAINS BENEATH AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS PARTIALLY MASKING THE
SATELLITE SIGNATURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 7N28W 6N58W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 3N-10N E OF
48W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LOW IS IN THE E GULF NEAR 24N85W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
COVERING THE AREA E OF 90W. THE DISSIPATING SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM S GEORGIA NEAR 32N83W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TO 27N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
23N-27N E OF 87W ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC. AN UPPER RIDGE
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE N GULF WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM NW MEXICO NE TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN UPPER
RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE S GULF S OF 21N. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS
BEING ADVECTED ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE S GULF PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 21N FROM THE W BAY OF
CAMPECHE ACROSS THE YUCATAN TO W CUBA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 76W ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS
BEING ADVECTED ACROSS MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE
W CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM OVER CUBA SOUTHWARD W OF 81W TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND
THE YUCATAN. WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HAITI SSE TO
THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA JUST N OF THE ABC ISLANDS DRAWING
DRIER AIR S OVER THE AREA. BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W
ATLC COVERS THE FAR E CARIBBEAN E OF 63W GIVING THE SE CARIBBEAN
SCATTERED SHOWERS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N E OF 5W ACROSS
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE ITCZ AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ALONG THE S COAST OF
PANAMA IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. MODERATE/STRONG TRADEWINDS
EXISTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BUT WITH BELOW GALE FORCE
WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA IN THE NEXT 12
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 27N67W WITH UPPER RIDGE
COVERING THE ATLC FROM 60W-80W. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW IS A
WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED NE OF THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR
28N75W MOVING NORTHWARD. DIFFLUENCE TO THE W  OF THE UPPER RIDGE
IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 27N
FROM 69W ACROSS S FLORIDA AND THE STRAIT OF FLORIDA IN TO THE SE
GULF AND WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 27N75W TO BEYOND 32N72W. AN
UPPER HIGH IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N53W COVERING THE
AREA S OF 19N FROM 40W-63W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE
CENTRAL ATLC N OF 21N FROM 30W-60W WITH THE UPPER LOW N OF THE
REGION. AN EMBEDDED LOW/MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE NEAR 29N55W. A SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION EXTENDS
FROM 32N49W TO 27N53W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC WITH
THE AXIS EXTENDING OFF AFRICA NEAR 25N15W TO 23N30W. AT THE
SURFACE...BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY ANCHORED
OVER THE ATLC. AFRICAN DUST IS AGAIN FILTERING OFF THE COAST
WITH SOME DUST REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
TROPICAL ATLC.

$$
WALLACE



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