[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110503
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUL 11 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W S OF 15N MOVING W 15 KT WITH A 1012
MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N. ALTHOUGH THE WAVE IS RATHER WELL
DEFINED...THE LOW IS LESS DEFINED THAN 24 HOURS AGO. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN
45W-49W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
REMAINS BENEATH AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS PARTIALLY MASKING THE
SATELLITE SIGNATURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N14W 8N33W 11N50W 10N62W. IN
ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE/LOW...
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 10W-46W AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS W OF
60W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LOW IS IN THE E GULF NEAR 24N84W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
COVERING THE AREA E OF 88W. ACCOMPANYING SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE W ATLC NEAR 30N79W ACROSS N OF DAYTONA TO NEAR TAMPA
INTO THE GULF TO NEAR 25N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 29N E OF 85W ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE
W ATLC. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE N GULF WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NW MEXICO NE TO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE S GULF S OF
22N. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE
S GULF PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF
22N FROM THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE E OF 93W TO OVER CUBA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS
BEING ADVECTED ACROSS MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE
W CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W
OF 81W TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN. MID/UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA SSE TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
THE ABC ISLANDS DRAWING DRIER AIR S OVER THE AREA. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF
10N E OF 78W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ITCZ AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM
COLOMBIA ALONG THE S COAST OF PANAMA IN THE E PACIFIC REGION.
MODERATE/STRONG TRADEWINDS EXISTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
BUT WITH BELOW GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE N COAST OF
COLOMBIA IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 26N66W WITH UPPER RIDGE
COVERING THE ATLC FROM 58W-80W. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW IS A
MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED E OF THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 27N73W
MOVING NORTHWARD. DIFFLUENCE TO THE W IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 29N W OF 76W TO OVER
FLORIDA. SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER THE SE BAHAMA ISLANDS WITHIN 60 NM OF
22N73.5W. AN UPPER HIGH IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 13N51W
COVERING THE AREA S OF 20N FROM 40W-61W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH
COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N FROM 30W-58W WITH THE UPPER LOW
N OF THE REGION. AN EMBEDDED LOW/MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE NEAR 29N52W. A SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION
EXTENDS FROM 31N49W TO 25N53W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E
ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING OFF AFRICA NEAR 24N15W TO 20N34W.
AT THE SURFACE...BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY
ANCHORED OVER THE ATLC. AFRICAN DUST REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE TROPICAL ATLC.

$$
WALLACE


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net