[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM MON JUL 10 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W S OF 14N MOVING W
AROUND 15 KT. A 1012 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE IS NEAR 11N. SHOWER
ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL. IT IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO A LESS
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...SO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...
SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-13N
BETWEEN 46W-49W. COMPUTER MODELS FORECAST THE WAVE TO AFFECT THE
LESSER ANTILLES ON WEDNESDAY AND PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS ON THURSDAY...INCREASING THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AS IT
CROSSES THE AREA.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W/68W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS
WAVE PRODUCED HEAVY RAIN...FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ACROSS
PARTS OF PUERTO RICO MAINLY THIS MORNING. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS AHEAD OF THE WAVE OVER
THE MONA PASSAGE AND FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 67W-69W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS OVER PARTS OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE WAVE IS ALSO
ENHANCING THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN VENEZUELA. THIS
WAVE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N16W 10N30W 9N44W 9N50W 9N60W. IN
ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE/LOW...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
70/90 NM NORTH OF THE AXIS FROM 53W-60W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
FOUND FROM 5N-10N EAST OF 43W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A CUT-OFF LOW IS OVER THE E GULF NEAR 25N84W. A NARROWING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS WSW FROM THE UPPER LOW TO THE COAST OF
MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA TO
NEAR 25N86W. DIFFLUENCE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND GUATEMALA
IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
OVER THAT AREA. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE.  UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW NW OF
HISPANIOLA SSE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TO THE COAST OF
SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN THE ABC AND WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE UPPER
LOW IS STILL PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT EXTEND FROM NEAR PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA NORTHWARD INTO
THE ATLANTIC FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN
72W-77W. ONSHORE SURFACE WIND FLOW AND A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT
ARE AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER
NICARAGUA AND NE HONDURAS. MODERATE/STRONG TRADEWINDS BLOW
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BUT ARE CURRENTLY BELOW GALE FORCE.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TOMORROW EVENING...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...REACHING GALE FORCE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NARROWING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE FAR E US AND
W ATLC INTO THE GULF.  A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA NEAR
31N78W...THEN CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN AROUND 100 NM AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NW OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 24N72W WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER HIGH IS
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 26N54W.
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 23N E
OF 50W WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS N OF THE REGION. AT THE
SURFACE...BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY ANCHORED
OVER THE ATLC E OF 70W. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM...
ONLY PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE N OF 15N EAST OF 60W.

$$
GR


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