[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 101810
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUL 10 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W SOUTH OF 15N
MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR IF
IN FACT ANYTHING HAPPENS AT ALL. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
FROM THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ITCZ IS ON TOP OF THIS WAVE.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 42W AND 48W.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W/67W FROM
PUERTO RICO SOUTHWARD...MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM A LOW CENTER ABOUT 75 NM NORTH
OF THE CAICOS ISLANDS NEAR 23N72W TO 18N69W IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA SOUTH OF THE EASTERN END OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
A FEW OTHER POSSIBLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERS ARE
HEAVILY EMBEDDED IN DRY AIR NEAR 20N60W AND 17N56W. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN
SEA FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W. THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RIGHT NOW EXISTS FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN
66W AND 68W...IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO FROM 17N TO 18.5N BETWEEN
66W AND 68W...AND IN PARTS OF THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
FROM 18.5N TO 19.5N BETWEEN 69W AND 70W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE FROM 21N TO 24N BETWEEN 72W AND 75W FROM THE CAICOS
ISLANDS TO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. SIMILAR PRECIPITATION IS
OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS FROM 26N TO 33N BETWEEN 68W AND
74W.

...THE ITCZ...
11N16W 9N30W 9N41W 9N47W 8N55W 8N62W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 4N TO 11N EAST OF 33W...FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 33W AND
40W...FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 47W AND 50W...AND WITHIN
30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N50W 9N56W 10N63W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 75W...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM A 31N80W LOW CENTER
TO CENTRAL FLORIDA TO A 24N84W SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LOW
CENTER TO 23N90W TO A DEVELOPING LOW CENTER NEAR 23N99W IN THE
EAST CENTRAL MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL U.S.A. TO THE U.S.A. GULF
COAST STATES TO THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH OF THE TROUGH. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM 27N108W IN WESTERN MEXICO BEYOND
WEST TEXAS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM
THE BAHAMAS NORTHWARD...FROM 22N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 75W AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. COAST. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS
FROM A LOW CENTER ABOUT 75 NM NORTH OF THE CAICOS ISLANDS NEAR
23N72W TO 18N69W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH OF THE EASTERN END
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A FEW OTHER POSSIBLE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERS ARE HEAVILY EMBEDDED IN DRY AIR NEAR 20N60W
AND 17N56W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W. THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RIGHT NOW EXISTS FROM 20N TO 22N
BETWEEN 66W AND 68W...IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO FROM 17N TO 18.5N
BETWEEN 66W AND 68W...AND IN PARTS OF THE EASTERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FROM 18.5N TO 19.5N BETWEEN 69W AND 70W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 21N TO 24N BETWEEN 72W AND 75W FROM
THE CAICOS ISLANDS TO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. SIMILAR
PRECIPITATION IS OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS FROM 26N
TO 33N BETWEEN 68W AND 74W. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N78W FROM THE NORTHEAST...TO 30N80W TO THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
NEAR TAMPA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF WATERS NEAR 24N87W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE 66W/67W TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING CLOSE TO THE CAICOS ISLANDS
23N72W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS FROM 17N TO
22N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
RIGHT NOW IS IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO FROM 17N TO 18.5 BETWEEN
66W AND 68W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON THE
CARIBBEAN SEA SIDE OF CENTRAL PANAMA...NORTHWESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN COSTA RICA COASTAL WATERS...AND EVEN MORE ALONG
THE COAST TO NICARAGUA FROM 11N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 83W AND 84.5W.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE
ITCZ IS ALONG 9N77W 10N84W...POSSIBLY HELPING TO DEVELOP SOME OF
THIS PRECIPITATION. ONSHORE SURFACE WIND FLOW AND SOME UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT MAY BE AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ALSO
EXTEND FROM NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA TO EASTERN HONDURAS. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM A LITTLE BIT WEST OF LAKE NICARAGUA
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 75W...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER IS NEAR 30N63W. A RIDGE EXTENDS TO
THE SOUTHEAST FOR 500 NM OR SO. THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN IS
COVERED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR 32N34W.
CYCLONIC FLOW EASILY COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 25N
BETWEEN 25W AND 52W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS FROM 16N
TO 26N BETWEEN 30W AND 47W...AND FROM 16N TO 30N BETWEEN 47W
AND 60W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS PRETTY MUCH
EVERYWHERE BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA.
PARTS OF A COLD FRONT REACH 32N52W...PART OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT IS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.

$$
MT

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