[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 101037
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUL 10 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT WITH A
WELL DEFINED 1012 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N. ALTHOUGH THIS
LOW/WAVE IS BETTER ORGANIZED...IT IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO A
LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT SLOW ANY TROPICAL FORMATION WILL BE
SLOW TO DEVELOP. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 42W-47W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS
BENEATH AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS PARTIALLY MASKING THE SATELLITE
SIGNATURE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE 17N64W-23N69W INCLUDING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W S OF 15N WHICH IS NO LONGER IN THE
ATLC BASIN.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 8N24W 7N37W 10N43W 7N56W
9N63W. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE/LOW... CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 225 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 32W-60W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N-10N E OF 30W TO THE
COAST OF AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
NARROWING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE FAR E US AND
W ATLC INTO THE GULF THROUGH JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA SW TO NEAR
25N90W. ACCOMPANYING DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS TO
NEAR 32N78W WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR
TAMPA TO NEAR 26N85W. THE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE N GULF. DUE TO THE DRY CONTINENTAL AIR ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE ACROSS THE N GULF N OF 24N. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE S GULF
S OF 24N. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATES STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER
THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N FROM 93W-97W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN
UPPER LOW N OF HISPANIOLA SSE TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA
BETWEEN THE ABC AND WINDWARD ISLANDS DRAWING DRIER AIR S OVER
THE AREA. HOWEVER...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION
ARE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N W OF 76W IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE ITCZ AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W ACROSS COSTA
RICA NEAR 10N84W. MODERATE/STRONG TRADEWINDS EXISTS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BUT ARE BELOW GALE FORCE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NARROWING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE FAR E US AND
W ATLC INTO THE GULF THROUGH 32N79W ACROSS JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
INTO THE GULF. ACCOMPANYING DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
TO NEAR 32N78W WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS FLORIDA
NEAR JACKSONVILLE INTO THE GULF NEAR TAMPA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF 31N. AN
UPPER LOW IS CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 22N71W WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING S INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 27N57W WITH
DIFFLUENCE ON THE FAR W EDGE ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER
OF THE ATLC N OF 23N E OF 50W WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS N OF
THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
FIRMLY ANCHORED OVER THE ATLC E OF 75W. AFRICAN DUST REMAINS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL ATLC. HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT OF DUST
COMING OFF AFRICA NOW IS LESSENING.

$$
WALLACE



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