[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100437
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUL 10 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0415 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W S OF 15N MOVING W 10 KT WITH A
WELL DEFINED 1011 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N. ALTHOUGH THIS
LOW/WAVE IS BETTER ORGANIZED...IT IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO A
LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT SLOW ANY TROPICAL FORMATION WILL BE
SLOW TO DEVELOP. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
9N-12N BETWEEN 39W-45W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS
BENEATH AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS PARTIALLY MASKING THE SATELLITE
SIGNATURE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE 16N61W-20N65W INCLUDING THE
LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W/87W S OF 15N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE
IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND BENEATH A STRONG UPPER
RIDGE...SO LITTLE SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 8N20W 10N39W 7N50W 9N61W. IN
ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE/LOW...
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120
NM OF THE AXIS FROM 49W-53W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION DOT
THE AREA WITHIN 200/225 NM FROM 31W-39W AND FROM 45W-60W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N-11N E OF
30W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE FAR E US AND THE W ATLC DIPS
INTO THE GULF AND IS BEING NARROWED BY A STRONG UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING FROM THE CENTRAL US ACROSS THE SE US. THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDS THROUGH JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA SW TO NEAR 26N90W.
ACCOMPANYING STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA
NEAR TAMPA TO NEAR 27N85W. THE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER
OF THE N GULF W OF 90W. DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N FROM 89W-94W. AN UPPER
RIDGE COVERS THE S GULF S OF 25N. DIFFLUENCE OVER THE W BAY OF
CAMPECHE IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION S OF
20N FROM 93W-96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT
THE REMAINDER OF THE SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 89W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN
UPPER LOW N OF HISPANIOLA SSE TO THE ABC ISLANDS OFF THE COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA DRAWING DRIER AIR S OVER THE AREA.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER
THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N W OF
80W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ITCZ AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA
NEAR 9N76W ACROSS COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W. MODERATE/STRONG
TRADEWINDS EXISTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BUT ARE BELOW GALE
FORCE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE FAR E US AND FAR W ATLC CONTINUES
TO MOVE E WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE
ACCOMPANYING STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS THROUGH
32N76W ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH TO TAMPA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM W CUBA
NEAR 22N79W TO NEAR 30N74W. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED N OF
HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N71W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S INTO
THE E CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 26N55W WITH DIFFLUENCE ON THE FAR W
EDGE GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION N
OF THE PUERTO RICO FROM 19N-25N BETWEEN 65W-70W. BROAD UPPER
TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 23N E OF 48W WITH A
SERIES OF UPPER LOWS N OF THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY ANCHORED OVER THE ATLC E OF
75W. AFRICAN DUST REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL ATLC.
HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT OF DUST COMING OFF AFRICA NOW IS LESSENING.

$$
WALLACE


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net