[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUL 09 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W S OF 15N. A 1011 MB
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE AXIS IS NEAR 10N41W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE JUST BEHIND THE WAVE
AXIS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 39.5W-41W. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 KT AND
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. COMPUTER MODELS
FORECAST THE WAVE TO AFFECT THE LESSER ANTILLES ON WEDNESDAY AND
PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS PROBABLY ON THURSDAY.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W S OF 17N MOVING W 15 KT.  WEAK
LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE AFFECTING
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THE WAVE IS
ALSO ENHANCING THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY OVER NE VENEZUELA. THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...REACHING DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AFTERWARD. A SURGE IN TRADES FOLLOWS THE WAVE. WINDS OF
20-25KT WILL BLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BEGINNING
TONIGHT.

TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER NICARAGUA ALONG 85W S OF 15N MOVING
W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE EPAC ITCZ
ARE PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
BUT MAINLY ACROSS NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. A DIFFLUENT
PATTERN ALOFT IS SUPPORTING THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 8N30W 9N40W 7N45W 10N60W.  IN
ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 40W-60W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS EAST OF 39W.


...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E US EXTENDS INTO THE GULF WITH
AXIS EXTENDING SW FROM N FLORIDA TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR
22N97W. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE GULF AND MEXICO
SOUTH 20N...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AN UPPER RIDGE
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.  DIFFLUENCE OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE IS GENERATING A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 19N-22N WEST OF 93W. A STATIONARY FRONT
REMAINS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTM
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. THE STATIONARY
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT AND MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW LOCATED NW OF PUERTO RICO IS STILL
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN
HISPANIOLA AND BERMUDA. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE CURRENTLY ABOVE
NORMAL IN THIS AREA AND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NWWD. A RIDGE
WITH CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W
CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 80W-90W AND ALSO EXTENDS NEWD OVER CUBA AND
THE BAHAMAS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ALONG CUBA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE AND A
DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT. MODERATE TO STRONG TRADEWINDS COVERS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE HIGHEST VELOCITIES JUST OFF OF THE
COLOMBIA COAST AND BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E U.S. AND THE GULF IS MOVING INTO
THE W ATLC N OF 24N W OF 77W. A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE AREA
NEAR 31N78W THEN CONTINUES SW AND W ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
THE GULF. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE 60 NM SE OF THE
FRONT. A LARGE 1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
32N58W. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM...ELY FLOW AND ONLY
PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE N OF 15N BETWEEN 15W-60W. A
LARGE UPPER LOW REMAINS NW OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 23N69W. A CLUSTER
OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NORTH OF THE ENCHANTED
ISLAND FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 65W-68W. THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 26N BETWEEN 30W-42W.  AN UPPER
RIDGE IS FURTHER E OVER WEST AFRICA WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC N OF 24N BETWEEN 10W-25W.  ELY FLOW DOMINATES THE
TROPICS.

$$
GR





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