[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091811
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUL 09 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 15N MOVING W 15 KT. LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE IS
OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.  CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 37W-45W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W/62W S OF 14N MOVING W 15-20 KT.  WEAK
LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.  SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN THE ITCZ WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 60W-64W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W S OF 15N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND BENEATH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE...SO
LITTLE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.  PATCHES OF
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE S OF 15N W OF 79W TO
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 7N30W 9N40W 6N45W 10N60W.  IN
ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 11W-17W...AND FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN
17W-22W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N
BETWEEN 45W-51W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF S AMERICA FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN
51W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM
CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE LOUISIANA COAST ALONG 29N80W 28N82W
DISSIPATING TO 28N88W.  WINDS ARE BASICALLY 10 KT N OF THE FRONT
AND 5 KT S OF THE FRONT.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
27N-28N BETWEEN 84W-90W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO
FROM 28N-29N BETWEEN 90W-92W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE AIRMASS
CONVECTION IS OVER THE W GULF FROM  24N-29N BETWEEN 93W-97W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM
18N-22N BETWEEN 94W-97W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A TROUGH IS
OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS FROM N FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
ALONG 30N84W 23N98W.  SIGNIFICANT UPPER AIR MOISTURE COVERS THE
AREA.  EXPECT...THE STATIONARY FRONT TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION TO FORM OVER THE S GULF S OF 26N
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO STRONG TRADEWINDS COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE
HIGHEST VELOCITIES ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA.  A TROPICAL
WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.  ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER
LEEWARD ISLANDS...SEE ABOVE.  A 1008 MB LOW IS ALONG THE COAST
OF N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N76W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE WITH
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W
CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 80W-90W.  A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 22N67W PRODUCING NW CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 80W.  EXPECT
CONTINUED CONVECTION DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVES DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N77W AND EXTENDS
SW TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 29N80W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT.  A LARGE 1029 MB HIGH
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N57W.  ELY FLOW AND MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER IS N OF 15N BETWEEN 15W-70W.  AFRICAN DUST IS ALSO
NOTED FROM EQ-30N E OF 50W SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO
RICO NEAR 23N66W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 10N-26N BETWEEN
55W-75W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 19N-26N BETWEEN 62W-70W.  THE BASE OF A TROUGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 26N BETWEEN 35W-52W.  A RIDGE IS FURTHER
E... N OF 20N BETWEEN 25W-35W WITH AXIS ALONG 30W.  ANOTHER
TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 22N BETWEEN 10W-25W.  ELY
FLOW IS PRIMARILY OVER THE TROPICS FROM EQ-20N BETWEEN 10W-50W.

$$
FORMOSA




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