[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091051
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUL 09 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W S OF 14N MOVING W 20 KT. LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH A WELL-DEFINED LOW/MID SIGNATURE CURVATURE
OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-12N BETWEEN
34W-44W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W/59W S OF 14N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WEAK
LOW/MID LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AS THE WAVE APPROACHES THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE ITCZ WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE AXIS FROM 56W-62W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W S OF 15N MOVING W 20 KT. WAVE IS
MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND BENEATH A STRONG UPPER
RIDGE...SO LITTLE SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
S OF 15N W OF 79W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 7N22W 7N30W 9N39W 6N46W
10N58W. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 45W-57W AND WITHIN
150 NM ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA S OF 13N W OF 8W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE AXIS
FROM 20W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E US EXTENDS INTO THE GULF N OF 24N
E OF 97W WITH THE ACCOMPANYING STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MEANDERING ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR TAMPA ALONG 29N88W TO NEAR
27N92W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM ACROSS THE ENTIRE S GULF S
OF 24N. DIFFLUENCE OVER THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE IS GENERATING
SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 22N FROM
93W-97W. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROADENING UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM PANAMA THROUGH THE S
CARIBBEAN ALONG 17N84W TO 23N86W IN THE S GULF. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 19N W OF 84W. BROAD
UPPER LOW EXTENDS S OVER THE E CARIBBEAN TO THE ABC ISLANDS OFF
THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA E OF 75W DRAWING DRIER AIR S OVER THE
AREA. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 18N
FROM THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS TO PUERTO RICO WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 68W-77W. MODERATE/STRONG TRADEWINDS EXISTS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BUT BELOW GALE FORCE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E US AND THE GULF IS MOVING INTO
THE W ATLC N OF 24N W OF 77W WITH THE ACCOMPANYING STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING THROUGH 32N76W ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR
DAYTONA BEACH TO TAMPA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NW OF THE FRONT TO THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. NARROW
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N79W
TO BEYOND 32N73W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE W IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LIEN FROM
CUBA NEAR 23N80W TO BEYOND 32N75W. BROAD UPPER LOW COVERS THE
W/CENTRAL ATLC FROM 57W-75W CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 22N70W
EXTENDING S INTO THE E CARIBBEAN WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
ALONG 66W FROM PUERTO RICO TO 25N. ALTHOUGH DRY AIR DOMINATES
MOST OF THE AREA... CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION COVER THE AREA WITHIN 225 NM OF LINE 18N58W TO
27N72W. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE UPPER LOW FROM
17N-28N BETWEEN 59W-71W INCLUDING THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS.
TWO UPPER LOWS ARE DIPPING S INTO THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC...ONE
CENTERED JUST N OF THE REGION NEAR 33N37W AND THE SECOND NEAR
31N19W. THE COMBINED UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E
ATLC WITH A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BETWEEN. BROAD UPPER HIGH DOMINATES
MOST OF THE TROPICAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 21N32W AND COVERS THE
AREA S OF 26N FROM 25W-50W. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY ANCHORED OVER THE ATLC E OF 75W. AFRICAN
DUST REMAINS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC BUT APPEARS TO BE LESSENING
ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA.

$$
WALLACE



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