[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090446
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUL 09 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0415 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W/38W S OF 14N MOVING W 20-25 KT. LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH A WELL-DEFINED LOW/MID SIGNATURE CURVATURE
OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-11N BETWEEN
34W-41W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W S OF 14N MOVING W 15 KT. WEAK
LOW/MID LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AS THE WAVE APPROACHES THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE ITCZ WITHIN 90 NM OF
OF LINE 9N53W-11N60W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W S OF 15N MOVING W 25 KT. WAVE IS
MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND BENEATH A STRONG UPPER
RIDGE...SO LITTLE SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 12N
W OF 78W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 8N25W 7N42W 8N55W 9N61W. IN
ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 24W-53W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE AXIS FROM E OF 24W TO THE
COAST OF AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E US EXTENDS INTO THE GULF N OF 23N
WITH THE ACCOMPANYING STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERING
ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR TAMPA ALONG 29N86W TO NEAR 27N92W. ISOLATED
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER
THE N GULF N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM ACROSS S MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO CUBA COVERING
THE GULF S OF 23N. DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF FROM 24N TO THE ABOVE FRONT
E OF 93W ACROSS FLORIDA AND AND S OF 23N FROM THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL TO OVER MEXICO INCLUDING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM PANAMA INTO THE S CARIBBEAN THROUGH
12N78W NNW TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL IN THE S GULF NEAR 23N86W.
DIFFLUENCE TO THE W IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION MAINLY INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 18N W OF 86W. BROAD UPPER LOW
EXTENDS S OVER THE E CARIBBEAN TO THE ABC ISLANDS OFF THE COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA E OF 75W DRAWING DRIER AIR S OVER THE AREA.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 18N FROM THE
MONA PASSAGE TO THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS. MODERATE/STRONG
TRADEWINDS EXISTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BUT BELOW GALE
FORCE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E US AND THE GULF IS MOVING INTO
THE W ATLC N OF 24N W OF 76W WITH THE ACCOMPANYING STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING THROUGH 32N75W ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR
DAYTONA BEACH TO TAMPA. ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE AREA WITHIN 60 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM THE W CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N79W TO BEYOND 32N73W.
DIFFLUENCE TO THE W IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N28N W OF 77W TO OVER FLORIDA INCLUDING THE
N BAHAMA ISLANDS. BROAD UPPER LOW COVERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC FROM
54W-75W CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N70W EXTENDING S INTO
THE E CARIBBEAN. ALTHOUGH DRY AIR DOMINATES MOST OF THE AREA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE UPPER LOW FROM
17N-28N BETWEEN 59W-71W INCLUDING THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS.
TWO UPPER LOWS ARE DIPPING S INTO THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC...ONE
CENTERED JUST N OF THE REGION NEAR 34N38W AND THE SECOND NEAR
30N19W. THE COMBINED UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E
ATLC WITH A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BETWEEN. BROAD UPPER HIGH DOMINATES
MOST OF THE TROPICAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 12N33W AND COVERS THE
AREA S OF 26N FROM 26W-54W. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY ANCHORED OVER THE ATLC E OF 75W. AFRICAN
DUST REMAINS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC BUT APPEARS TO BE LESSENING
ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA.

$$
WALLACE


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