[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081737
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUL 08 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W S OF 13N MOVING W 15-20 KT. LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH IMPROVING CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY.  CONVECTION IS SPREADING S OF THE ITCZ DUE TO
THE WAVE WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN
28W-36W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W S OF 14N MOVING W 15 KT. BROAD LOW
LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY.  SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON THE
ITCZ FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 48W-55W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W S OF 15N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE IS
MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA...SO LITTLE SIGNATURE CURVATURE
IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA FROM 9N-11N
BETWEEN 73W-77W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 96W S OF 22N
MOVING W 15 KT.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
19N-22N BETWEEN 95W-98W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N17W 8N30W 7N40W 9N53W 8N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
AXIS FROM 27W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM
CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE LOUISIANA COAST ALONG 28N80W 27N83W
28N88W 27N92W.  A DISTINCT WINDSHIFT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...HOWEVER...WIND VELOCITIES ARE BASICALLY ONLY 10 KT ON
BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
26N-28N BETWEEN 82W-88W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM 28N-29N BETWEEN
91W-94W.  A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 96W
MOVING W.  SEE ABOVE.  WIDELY SCATTERED AIRMASS SHOWERS ARE
ALONG THE SW COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM 23N-26N
BETWEEN 80W-83W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS LOCATED OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N96W.  CYCLONIC FLOW
IS WITHIN 240 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER.  THE BASE OF A TROUGH IS
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO N OF 22N.  SIGNIFICANT UPPER AIR
MOISTURE COVERS THE AREA.  EXPECT...THE STATIONARY FRONT TO
DISSIPATE BY LATE SUNDAY.  ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION TO FORM
OVER THE W GULF W OF 92W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO STRONG TRADEWINDS COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE
HIGHEST VELOCITIES ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA.  A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...SEE ABOVE.  A 1008
MB LOW IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA NEAR 8N77W.  PATCHES OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA
AND COSTA RICA FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 78W-86W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE FROM 16N-19N
BETWEEN 87W-89W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE WITH
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W
CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 80W-90W.  A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 23N66W PRODUCING NW CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 80W.  EXPECT
CONTINUED AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT LIGHT CONVECTION OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE PRESENTLY AT
53W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1017 MB LOW IS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR 35N72W.  A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N80W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE
FRONT.  A LARGE 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
34N43W.  ELY FLOW AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS N OF 15N BETWEEN
15W-70W.  AFRICAN DUST IS ALSO NOTED FROM EQ-30N E OF 50W
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 23N66W.  CYCLONIC
FLOW IS FROM 10N-32N BETWEEN 55W-75W.  THE BASE OF A TROUGH IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 26N BETWEEN 35W-52W.  A RIDGE IS
FURTHER E... N OF 20N BETWEEN 25W-35W WITH AXIS ALONG 30W.
ANOTHER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 22N BETWEEN 10W-25W.
ELY FLOW IS PRIMARILY OVER THE TROPICS FROM EQ-20N BETWEEN
10W-50W.

$$
FORMOSA




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