[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081033
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUL 08 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W S OF 12N MOVING W 15-20 KT. LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH MID SIGNATURE CURVATURE OBSERVED ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
8N-11N BETWEEN 27W-34W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W S OF 13N MOVING W 15 KT. BROAD
LOW/MID LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN THE ITCZ WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 49W-55W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W/71W S OF 15N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE IS
MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA...SO LITTLE SIGNATURE CURVATURE
IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS/CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W VENEZUELA.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 95W S OF 22N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE IS
INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S
MEXICO ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 21N FROM 92W-97W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N15W 9N24W 11N47W 7N60W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM
34W-43W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 27W-41W AND WITHIN 90 NM OF
THE AXIS FROM 45W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E US EXTENDING INTO THE N GULF N
OF 25N WITH THE ACCOMPANYING STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MEANDERING ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR TAMPA ALONG 29N86W TO NEAR
27N94W. ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM ACROSS S MEXICO INTO THE SW GULF OVER
THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE TO NEAR 21N97W ENHANCING CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM THE W CARIBBEAN OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND W CUBA.
DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF S OF THE ABOVE FRONT E OF 86W
ACROSS FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA INTO THE S CARIBBEAN THROUGH
12N78W NNW TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL/W CUBA NEAR 22N85W. DIFFLUENCE
TO THE W IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION INLAND AND WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL/
SOUTH AMERICA S OF 19N W OF 77W. THIS CONVECTION IS ENHANCING BY
THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. AN
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S OVER THE E CARIBBEAN TO THE COAST OF
SOUTH AMERICA E OF 76W DRAWING DRIER AIR S OVER THE AREA.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 16N ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS  BETWEEN 63W-76W ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LOW IN THE W ATLC. MODERATE/STRONG TRADEWINDS EXISTS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NARROWING UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W CARIBBEAN ACROSS
W/CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 23N81W TO BEYOND 32N73W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE W
IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NW OF
LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 22N79W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS ALONG 27N75W TO
BEYOND 32N73W. BROAD UPPER LOW COVERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC FROM
57W-74W CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 21N67W EXTENDING S INTO
THE E CARIBBEAN. ALTHOUGH DRY AIR DOMINATES MOST OF THE AREA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SURROUND THE UPPER LOW
FROM 16N-27N BETWEEN 62W-71W INCLUDING THE GREATER ANTILLES TO
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 16N55W-21N59W.
BROAD UPPER HIGH DOMINATES MOST OF THE E ATLC CENTERED NEAR
24N34W AND COVERS THE AREA FROM 26W-57W. UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC N OF 18N E OF 26W TO INLAND OVER W
AFRICA. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
FIRMLY ANCHORED OVER THE ATLC. AFRICAN DUST CONTINUES TO MOVE
OFF AFRICA COVERING THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM AFRICA TO THE E
CARIBBEAN...SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE TROPICAL
FORMATION.

$$
WALLACE



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