[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080443
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT JUL 08 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0415 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE WAS ADDED AT 08/0000 UTC ALONG 28W/29W S OF 12N
MOVING W 15-20 KT. LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH WEAK SIGNATURE
CURVATURE OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE PLACEMENT
IS TO THE E OF THE CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 29W-34W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W S OF 14N MOVING W 15 KT. BROAD
LOW/MID LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 8N-13N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W S OF 14N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS
MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA...SO LITTLE SIGNATURE CURVATURE
IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 93W/94W S OF 22N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE
IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND
S MEXICO ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION S OF 22N FROM 90W-94W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 7N24W 7N37W 9N47W 8N60W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180
NM OF THE AXIS FROM 34W-37W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 225 NM N OF THE
AXIS FROM 37W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E US DIPPING S INTO THE N GULF
WITH THE ACCOMPANYING STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERING
ACROSS FLORIDA JUST N OF TAMPA ALONG 29N87W 27N92W TO OFF THE
TEXAS COAST NEAR 27N96W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM ACROSS S MEXICO INTO THE SW GULF OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO NEAR 24N95W ENHANCING CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM THE W CARIBBEAN OVER THE THE SE GULF ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA
INTO THE W ATLC. DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF S OF THE ABOVE
FRONT E OF 87W ACROSS FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE S CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA NNW ALONG 17N82W THEN NNE ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE
W ATLC. DIFFLUENCE TO THE W IS GENERATING SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 12N W OF 79W. SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 10N E OF 79W TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA
AND PANAMA ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE E
PACIFIC REGION. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E
OF 74W DRAWING DRIER AIR S OVER THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW IN THE W ATLC. MODERATE/STRONG TRADEWINDS EXISTS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO
BEYOND 32N72W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE W IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NW OF LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 22N80W
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS ALONG 28N75W TO BEYOND 32N72W. BROAD UPPER
LOW COVERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC FROM 59W-74W CENTERED N OF PUERTO
RICO NEAR 21N67W EXTENDING S INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. DRY AIR
DOMINATES THE AREA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF THE UPPER LOW FROM
17N-24N BETWEEN 60W-67W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. BROAD UPPER HIGH DOMINATES MOST OF THE E ATLC CENTERED
NEAR 24N34W AND COVERS THE AREA FROM 26W-59W. UPPER TROUGH
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 26W TO INLAND
OVER W AFRICA. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS FIRMLY ANCHORED OVER THE ATLC. AFRICAN DUST CONTINUES TO
MOVE OFF AFRICA COVERING THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM AFRICA TO THE E
CARIBBEAN...SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE TROPICAL
FORMATION.

$$
WALLACE


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