[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUL 07 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W S OF 13N MOVING W 15 KT. BROAD LOW
LEVEL CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS FROM
9N-11N BETWEEN 43W-47W. THE GFS MODEL FORECASTS THE WAVE TO
AFFECT THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE SATURDAY AND THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON
SUNDAY.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W S OF 16N MOVING W 15 KT. WEAK LOW
LEVEL CURVATURE CAN BARELY BE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...BUT THE
WAVE IS PROBABLY ENHANCING THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL VENEZUELA.

TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND GUATEMALA
ALONG 91W S OF 23N MOVING W 15 KT. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS FROM 16N-19N.
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE.
DIFFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MAY
ALSO BE ENHANCING THE CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N17W 7N35W 9N47W 9N50W 7N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 70/90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 29W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E U.S. DIGGING S INTO THE NE
GULF. THIS STRONG TROUGH ALONG WITH ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE
IS GENERATING ROUNDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS/TSTM OVER PARTS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. MORE OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED TOMORROW. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES ALONG NORTHERN FLORIDA
AND THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE RELATED
TO THIS STATIONARY FRONT. WIND VELOCITIES ARE BASICALLY ONLY 10
KT ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 89W MOVING WWD WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH IS
OVER THE NW QUADRANT OF THE GULF AND NE MEXICO. THE SURFACE
TROUGH AND A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT ARE SUPPORTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER SOUTH TEXAS
AND NE MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH BROKEN
CLOUDS COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
GULF...PARTICULARLY THE WESTERN HALF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE WITH CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IS OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN WEST OF 80W. AN UPPER LOW IS
CENTERED NORTH OF PUERTO RICO WITH AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING SWWD ALONG THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
ARE AFFECTING DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PUERTO RICO. THIS UPPER LOW
IS DRIFTING WEST. TYPICAL TRADEWIND SHOWERS ARE OVER MOST OF THE
CENTRAL/EAST CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BLOW ACROSS THE BASIN ON SATURDAY THANKS TO A STRONG RIDGE
LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA AND THE
BAHAMAS TO BEYOND 30N74W. AN UPPER LOW IS NORTH OF PUERTO RICO
NEAR 23N65W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH COVERS THE W/CENTRAL
ATLC. ITS AXIS EXTENDS NE/SW INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE
MONA PASSAGE. MOSTLY DRY AIR DOMINATES THE AREA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A BAND OF MOISTURE THAT THE UPPER LOW IS PULLING
ACROSS DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PUERTO RICO. AN UPPER HIGH
DOMINATES THE E ATLC CENTERED NEAR 22N32W AND COVERS THE AREA
FROM 25W-50W. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE CANARY ISLANDS TO
NEAR 21N23W. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE AREA
NEAR 32N77W THEN CONTINUES WSW ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM 26N-30N WEST OF 75W. A LARGE 1033 MB HIGH IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 36N32W.  ELY FLOW AND MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE. ACCORDING TO
THE 07/2100 UTC SAHARAN AIR LAYER FROM CIMSS...AFRICAN DUST IS
ALSO NOTED FROM EQ-30N E OF 50W SUPPRESSING CONVECTION.

$$
GR





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