[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUL 07 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W S OF 13N MOVING W 15 KT. BROAD LOW
LEVEL CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN
45W-51W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W S OF 13N MOVING W 15 KT. WEAK LOW
LEVEL CURVATURE CAN BARELY BE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED...HOWEVER SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 63W-69W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 89W S OF 23N
MOVING W 15 KT.  CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS
FROM PANAMA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  DIFFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MAY ALSO BE ENHANCING THE
CONVECTION.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE 6N77W 9N81W 14N84W 20N87W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 7N30W 7N40W 10N47W 8N60W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 18W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM N FLORIDA TO
E TEXAS ALONG 30N80W 29N85W 29N90W 28N97W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.  A DISTINCT WINDSHIFT
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...HOWEVER...WIND VELOCITIES ARE
BASICALLY ONLY 10 KT ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT.  A TROPICAL
WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 89W MOVING W.  SEE
ABOVE.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE AIRMASS CONVECTION IS ALSO
ALONG THE SW COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM 24N-27N
BETWEEN 81W-83W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
IS LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N94W.  CYCLONIC FLOW
IS WITHIN 240 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE E
GULF E OF 90W.  A GOOD AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
BROKEN CLOUDS COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF.  EXPECT...THE
FRONT TO GO STATIONARY SOON AND HAVE CONTINUED CONVECTION.  ALSO
EXPECT MORE CONVECTION TO FORM OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W DUE TO
THE TROPICAL WAVE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO STRONG TRADEWINDS COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN...SEE ABOVE.  A 1008 MB
LOW IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W.  A GALE IS ALSO
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 70W-78W DUE
TO A GREATER THAN AVERAGE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE WITH CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IS OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 80W-90W.  A LARGE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 23N67W
PRODUCING NW CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN E OF 80W.  EXPECT CONVECTION TO SHIFT W WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE TROPICAL WAVES DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1017 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N78W.  A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS W TO N FLORIDA NEAR 30N80W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-33N BETWEEN 71W-81W.  A LARGE 1033 MB
HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 36N32W.  ELY FLOW AND
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS N OF 15N BETWEEN 15W-70W.  AFRICAN DUST
IS ALSO NOTED FROM EQ-30N E OF 50W SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED N
OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 23N67W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 10N-32N
BETWEEN 55W-80W.  A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 24N30W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 10N
BETWEEN 20W-55W.  A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ALSO OVER THE
TROPICAL E ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR EQ40W.  UPPER LEVEL ELY FLOW
IS FROM EQ-10N BETWEEN 20W-50W.

$$
FORMOSA




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