[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 071051
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUL 07 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W S OF 13N MOVING W 15 KT. BROAD
LOW/MID LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF 10N FROM 41W-45W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W S OF 13N MOVING W 15 KT. WEAK MID
LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AS THE WAVE ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN. NO ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W/88W S OF 23N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE
CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH A SHARPE UPPER TROUGH ENHANCING LARGE
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
OVER THE AREA S OF 22N W OF 81W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 8N23W 7N34W 9N43W 7N59W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N
BETWEEN 28W-32W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM 2N-10N BETWEEN 20W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E US DIPPING S INTO THE N GULF
WITH THE ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERING ALONG 29W/30W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE N GULF N
OF 26N. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR FT MYERS
FLORIDA TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S
OF 26N E OF 88W TO OVER THE FLORIDA. BROAD N/S UPPER RIDGE
REMAINS OVER MEXICO COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EMBEDDED
WITHIN THIS FLOW IS A MID LEVEL LOW NEAR 22N94W MOVING S TOWARD
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DOT THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 13N85W NNE
ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. DIFFLUENCE TO THE W IS
ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W
CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF
14N E OF 76W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. STRONG TRADEWINDS EXISTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO
BEYOND 32N74W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE W IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NW OF LINE FROM CUBA NEAR
22N80W 28N76W TO BEYOND 32N70W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE
W/CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING NE/SW ALONG 32N60W
THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 24N64W INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN THROUGH
THE MONA PASSAGE. DRY AIR DOMINATES THE AREA...THUS NO
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS. AN UPPER HIGH DOMINATES THE E ATLC CENTERED
NEAR 24N34W AND COVERS THE AREA FROM 21W-50W. ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH COVERS THE NE ATLC N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS E OF 21W TO
INLAND OVER NW AFRICA. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY ANCHORED OVER THE ATLC E OF 79W. AFRICAN
DUST CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF AFRICA COVERING THE TROPICAL ATLC
FROM AFRICA TO THE E CARIBBEAN...SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AND
POSSIBLE TROPICAL FORMATION.

$$
WALLACE



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