[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070534
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUL 07 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W S OF 13N MOVING W 15 KT. BROAD LOW
LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W/61W S OF 13N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WEAK
MID LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AS THE WAVE MOVES TOWARD THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. NO
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W S OF 22N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS
INTERACTING WITH A SHARPE UPPER TROUGH ENHANCING SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N-23N BETWEEN 81W-86W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 7N21W 4N28W 6N41W 6N59W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N
BETWEEN 28W-32W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM 3N-11N BETWEEN 21W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E US DIPPING S TO OVER THE N
GULF COAST STATES WITH THE ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MEANDERING ALONG 30W/31W AND WILL MOVING INTO THE N GULF OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE NW
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF 84W TO OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. BROAD N/S UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER MEXICO
COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW IS
A MID LEVEL LOW NEAR 23N95W MOVING S TOWARD THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF 19W S OF
21N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE COAST OF BELIZE ENHANCING CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN. UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA NNE ACROSS E CUBA INTO THE W ATLC.
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF
73W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. STRONG TRADEWINDS EXISTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W CARIBBEAN ACROSS E CUBA TO BEYOND
32N72W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE W IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA W OF LINE FROM CUBA NEAR
22N78W 29N78W TO BEYOND 32N72W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE
W/CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING NE/SW ALONG 32N61W
THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 23N63W INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN THROUGH
THE MONA PASSAGE. DRY AIR DOMINATES THE AREA...THUS NO
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS. AN UPPER HIGH DOMINATES THE E ATLC CENTERED
NEAR 23N34W AND COVERS THE AREA FROM 21W-50W. ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH COVERS THE NE ATLC N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS E OF 21W TO
INLAND OVER NW AFRICA. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY ANCHORED OVER THE ATLC E OF 79W. AFRICAN
DUST CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF AFRICA COVERING THE TROPICAL ATLC
FROM AFRICA TO THE E CARIBBEAN...SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AND
POSSIBLE TROPICAL FORMATION.

$$
WALLACE


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