[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 061816
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUL 06 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W SOUTH OF 12N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. NO DEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
RELATED SPECIFICALLY JUST TO THIS WAVE. THE WAVE IS SOMEWHAT
EVIDENT IN CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W SOUTH OF 12N
MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. NO DEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE RELATED SPECIFICALLY JUST TO THIS WAVE.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W SOUTH OF 22N IN
WESTERN CUBA. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO FLORIDA-TO NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STRETCH FROM THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N TO 27N BETWEEN
77W AND 81W...INCLUDING OVER THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE FOUND IN
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 81W AND 84W.
OTHER ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 80W AND 86W...
AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF 26N EAST OF 84W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 11N13W 6N25W 6N39W 6N43W 6N53W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 11N16W 9N23W 5N33W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 TO 75 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 7N48W 8N56W 9N62W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO EAST OF 87W...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 20N
WEST OF 60W...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTH OF 16N WEST OF 70W...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS THROUGH A POINT ABOUT 90 NM
OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA COAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA TO HONDURAS. ONE LOW CENTER IN THIS TROUGH APPEARS
TO BE NEAR 27N81W WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ANOTHER LOW CENTER IS
NEAR 24N84W. A THIRD LOW CENTER IS JUST SOUTH OF THE WESTERN TIP
OF CUBA IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STRETCH FROM THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N TO 27N BETWEEN
77W AND 81W...INCLUDING OVER THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE FOUND IN
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 81W AND 84W.
OTHER ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 80W AND 86W...
AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF 26N EAST OF 84W. A SURFACE
TROUGH RUNS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 33N79W TO THE FLORIDA
WEST COAST NEAR 28N TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC
WATERS WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N78W BEYOND 33N76W.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 24N63W. MOISTURE IS
CURVING INWARD TOWARD THE CENTER FROM THE WEST...WHILE DRY AIR
SURROUNDS THIS LOW CENTER EVERYWHERE ELSE. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM 23N TO 24N BETWEEN
61W AND 63W. OTHER CLOUDS ARE STREAMING INTO THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THE LOW CENTER FROM THE WEST.

INTERIOR MEXICO AND THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A CENTRAL BAJA
CALIFORNIA LOW CENTER AND ACCOMPANYING EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROUGH COVERS INTERIOR MEXICO WEST OF 107W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS ALONG 103W/104W IN MEXICO AND THEN BEYOND WEST TEXAS INTO
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. A NEW MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS
NEAR 25N92W...DROPPING SOUTHWARD. A TEXAS GULF COAST SURFACE
TROUGH REMAINS. A COLD FRONT RIGHT NOW CUTS THROUGH CENTRAL
GEORGIA...CENTRAL ALABAMA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...THE NORTHERN
HALF OF LOUISIANA...INTO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETWEEN THE
WESTERN TIP OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM OF THE
COAST BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND THE LOWER TEXAS COAST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH OF 16N...
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. THIS WESTERLY
FLOW IS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH
STARTS OUT IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR THE ITCZ...AND ENDS IN
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE ITCZ SHOWERS ARE
SOUTH OF 12N WEST OF 77W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 60W...
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW CENTER OF THE LAST MANY DAYS
APPARENTLY HAS WEAKENED...NOT TOO PROMINENT AT ALL THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH RUNS FROM 34N42W...TO A WEAK LOW CENTER NEAR 27N55W TO
26N54W. CYCLONIC FLOW AND DRY AIR ARE WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER IS NEAR 25N33W
A RIDGE RUNS FROM THE HIGH CENTER BEYOND 33N31W. THE UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 26W AND THE 34N42W 26N54W TROUGH. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN TROUGH PASSES OVER THE MADEIRA ISLANDS TO 25N20W. THIS
TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR. A SURFACE
RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N55W TO 30N65W 26N70W TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
TIP OF CUBA.

$$
MT


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