[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052352
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUL 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W S OF 13N MOVING W 15 KT. MID
LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE AXIS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 28W-40W. COMPUTER MODELS
FORECAST THE WAVE TO AFFECT THE LESSER ANTILLES ON SUNDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W S OF 11N MOVING W 15-20 KT. NO
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W/77W S OF 23N MOVING WNW 15-20 KT.
THIS WAVE IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION OVER EASTERN CUBA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS...BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA AND ACROSS PARTS OF JAMAICA.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 7N20W 8N30W 7N45W 6N57W.
OUTSIDE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG 36W...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND WITHIN
25/50 NM OF THE AXIS EAST OF 20W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE ELSEWHERE.


...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF W OF 85W WITH THE UPPER HIGH
OVER THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N96W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1012
MB LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED OVER THE NW QUADRANT OF THE GULF
WHILE A TROUGH REMAINS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. THIS FEATURE
EXTENDS WSW INTO NE MEXICO. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 93W-98W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS ALSO OBSERVED OVER THE NE PORTION OF MEXICO. A
DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS ENHANCING THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW IS BETWEEN ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS
AND CENTRAL CUBA. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND THE STRAIT OF
FLORIDA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. PART OF THIS SHOWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY IS AFFECTING SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE WEST ACROSS THE FL STRAITS TONIGHT WHILE
DISSIPATING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER LOW TO NORTHERN NICARAGUA. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
OVER PARTS OF NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA. UPPER NLY FLOW IS ADVECTING
DRIER AIR OVER THE FAR W CARIBBEAN WEST OF 85W AND HONDURAS.
WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE S CARIBBEAN IS ADVECTING E PACIFIC
TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS COSTA RICA...PANAMA AND THE CARIBBEAN
SEA SOUTH OF 15N. CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE AREA. A
GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST. STRONG RIDGE
WILL BUILD WWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WEST ATLC DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS ALLOWING THE TRADE WINDS TO INCREASE OVER THE S CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH SATURDAY. AFRICAN DUST HAS REACHED THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
CREATING A DRY AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND HAZY CONDITIONS OVER
THAT AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW IS BETWEEN ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS
AND CENTRAL CUBA WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.
DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES TO
30N BETWEEN 65W-80W INCLUDING THE BAHAMA ISLANDS AND THE SE
COAST OF FLORIDA. A WEAK RIDGE IS JUST EAST OF THE LOW/TROUGH
COVERING FROM 65W-72W. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN
UPPER LOW NEAR 32N44W TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. AN UPPER HIGH
LOCATED NEAR 22N30W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING N COVERS THE MOST OF
THE E ATLC. AT THE SURFACE... BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS FIRMLY ANCHORED OVER THE ATLC E OF 70W. AFRICAN DUST
CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF AFRICA COVERING THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM
AFRICA INTO THE E CARIBBEAN...SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AND
POSSIBLE TROPICAL FORMATION.

$$
GR


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