[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 051804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUL 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING
WEST 15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE ITCZ
FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 34W AND 38W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W SOUTH OF 11N
MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. NO DEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE RELATED SPECIFICALLY JUST TO THIS WAVE.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W SOUTH OF 22N...OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA 67W/68W OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO MOVING WEST
15 TO 20 KT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM JUST SOUTHWEST OF
JAMAICA TO THE WATERS BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA
ALSO ARE NEAR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTER.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 11N12W 8N16W 8N32W 8N37W 7N48W 6N52W 6N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
120 TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N14W 10N35W 8N43W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 60 TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 8N43W
8N54W 7N60W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO EAST OF 87W...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 20N
WEST OF 60W...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTH OF 17N WEST OF 70W...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR 23.5N 80W IN THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA IS WREAKING HAVOC WITH THE SUMMER SUNSHINE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING EVERYWHERE AROUND
THIS LOW CENTER FROM JAMAICA TO CUBA TO SOUTH FLORIDA AND
THE BAHAMAS...AND NORTHWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND
NORTHWARD ABOUT 400 NM FROM LONG ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...IN
A 120 NM WIDE CORRIDOR. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN AN AREA FROM 80 NM
SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA TO 120 NM SOUTHWEST OF CUBA TO THE WATERS
IN BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA. ANOTHER MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 29N61W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 67W AND 69W.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF
THE STRONGER PRECIPITATION FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 66W AND 72W.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PURELY NORTHERLY...THE COMBINATION OF
THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA LOW CENTER AND
THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE VERACRUZ MEXICO HIGH CENTER.

INTERIOR MEXICO AND THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA LOW CENTER AND ACCOMPANYING TROUGH COVERS INTERIOR
MEXICO WEST OF 105W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER IS NEAR 20N97W
IN THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS A LITTLE NORTH OF VERACRUZ. UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS WEST OF 87W. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS
FROM SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...ALONG THE ENTIRE TEXAS COASTAL
PLAINS FROM THE UPPER TEXAS COAST TO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
NOW ARE IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND WATERS FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COAST TO SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH OF 17N...
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. THIS WESTERLY
FLOW IS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH
STARTS OUT IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR THE ITCZ...AND ENDS
IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA FROM
9.5N TO 12N BETWEEN 80W AND SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...AND IN
SOME CELLS IN EASTERN PANAMA. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION STARTED
OUT 5 HOURS AGO BEING CLOSER TO THE COLOMBIA COAST AND THE GULF
OF URABA. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN THAT AREA WARMED AND
THE PRECIPITATION HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT COMPARATIVELY SPEAKING.
THE COLDER CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND STRONGER PRECIPITATION
HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. THESE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PROBABLY ARE RELATED TO THE ITCZ.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 60W...
YESTERDAY'S MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR 31N46W
HAS SHIFTED LOCATIONS NOW TO 30N44W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN
250 TO 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH FROM THE CENTER
TO 26N48W AND THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N60W.
THE TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR FOR AT LEAST 200 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF IT. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER IS NEAR 21N36W.
A RIDGE RUNS FROM THE HIGH CENTER BEYOND 32N32W. THE UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 26W AND THE TROUGH WITH THE 30N44W LOW CENTER. A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER APPEARS TO BE TRYING TO GET ITSELF
ORGANIZED NEAR 28N24W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE
NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN RUNS FROM JUST WEST OF PORTUGAL
OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. A SURFACE RIDGE GOES FROM 39N13W TO
A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 37N30W TO 37N43W TO BERMUDA
AND 33N74W.

$$
MT


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