[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051034
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUL 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W S OF 13N MOVING W 15 KT. MID
LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
9N-12N BETWEEN 31W-35W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 31W-37W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W S OF 12N MOVING W 20 KT.
LOW-AMPLITUDE...BROAD MID LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED
ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W/74W S OF 23N MOVING WNW 20 KT. WAVE
IS RAPIDLY MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE
CURVATURE OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 12N TO
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA FROM 72W-76W AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG
THE S COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 7N16W 10N26W 7N42W 6N59W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 24W-31W AND FROM 35W-45W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM
N OF THE AXIS FROM 48W-55W W OF 70W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD N/S UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF W OF 86W WITH THE UPPER
HIGH OVER THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N95W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE
NW IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION INLAND
OVER TEXAS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NW GULF N OF 27N W OF 89W. A NEAR STATIONARY BUT
WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE NW GULF THROUGH WED AND RETURN TO FLORIDA AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE FLORIDA E COAST AND THE UPPER
LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE W OVER THE PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS IN THE N CARIBBEAN FROM THE UPPER LOW OFF
THE E COAST OF FLORIDA N OF 15N FROM 71W-86W GENERATING
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM
ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA FROM 75W-82W. STRONG UPPER SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER THE FAR W CARIBBEAN IS ADVECTING DRIER AIR AND
SEVERELY LIMITING SHOWERS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA N OF NICARAGUA. STRONG WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE S
CARIBBEAN IS ADVECTING E PACIFIC TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS COSTA
RICA AND PANAMA WITH THE E PACIFIC ITCZ JUST S OF PANAMA. THIS
IS GIVING THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N W OF 72W SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE 11N81W TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA NEAR
9N76W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
NEAR 24N80W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE W ATLC S OF 31N W
OF 72W WITH A NARROW RIDGE JUST TO THE E WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
REFLECTED DOWN ALONG THE E COAST OF FLORIDA FROM CUBA TO 29N.
DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER LOW/SURFACE TROUGH IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FROM THE GREATER
ANTILLES TO 31N BETWEEN 65W-80W INCLUDING THE BAHAMA ISLANDS.
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC N OF 18N FROM 40W-65W WITH A WEAKENING MID LEVEL
LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N63W AND A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW NEAR
31N46W. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE DRY UPPER AIR...ONLY CONVECTION
OVER THE W ATLC. AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED TO THE E NEAR 23N32W
AND COVERS THE AREA FROM 24W-40W. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH COVERS
THE NE ATLC N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS E OF 24W TO INLAND OVER NW
AFRICA. AT THE SURFACE... BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
FIRMLY ANCHORED OVER THE ATLC E OF 70W. AFRICAN DUST CONTINUES
TO MOVE OFF AFRICA COVERING THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM AFRICA INTO
THE E CARIBBEAN...SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE TROPICAL
FORMATION.

$$
WALLACE



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